Denver Broncos 2025 betting outlook: Why the over on 9.5 wins looks like the right play

We are at team number three in this journey of trying to cover every team from the NFL before this season kicks off. This is a good exercise for anyone who is into any sport. It helps with futures betting, obviously, but also gives you a good understanding of what each team did in the offseason, which hopefully helps you get out of the gate on the correct foot. The Denver Broncos are a team looking to get out to a great start after a tough end to their season.

Denver, in 2024, surprised some people with a solid season. The Broncos made the playoffs but lost to Buffalo. Last year, there was no surprise; they were the dominant team in the division (which had been owned by Kansas City for years). They had one of the best defenses in football, and their offense did just enough to get the wins. After starting the season 1-2, they ran off 11 straight wins. In the postseason, they beat the Bills in a wild game, winning 33-30. Bo Nix, their quarterback, was injured in the game and ultimately didn’t play in the next game. That was against New England, who won a boring 10-7 game. To Jarrett Stidham’s credit, he did what he could, but it wasn’t enough as both defenses fought tough, but New England did just a bit more.

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Sometimes when you’re that close, you have to just knock the door down and go for it. Denver traded away three picks (they did get one back) to get Jaylen Waddle onto the roster. He is a good complementary wide receiver for the Broncos, but I think that was a lot to pay for a guy that I think is only slightly above average. They didn’t really lose anyone on defense, which might be the best offseason move they could make. One player they lost was defensive tackle John Franklin-Meyers, who is good, but I think replaceable enough.

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When I look at the depth chart for the Broncos, I am not overwhelmingly impressed with their offense. I know Bo Nix played very well last year, but I also don’t know if this is a guy who will be great every season. I think the Broncos were very lucky last season, and some of that will regress. The strength of the team is defense. They should once again be an elite unit in the league. Sean Payton is still a good coach and creative on offense, so maybe I’m dogging the offense when I shouldn’t.

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I think the books have dropped the Broncos back a bit too much. At 9.5 games, they should be able to achieve this total. You’re still likely to get two wins against the Raiders; I would think they can split or beat Kansas City both times. It will be a tougher schedule, no doubt, but I think 10 wins seems like a very achievable number. This defense will still compete, but probably take a step back with a very tough schedule. Give me the over 9.5 wins.

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