Cade Cavalli's pitch mix and Nationals' strong road record make them a smart MLB betting play
This week is proving to be one of those moments where I feel like there are too many ugly losses to justify following my picks. I still put my nose to the grind and find the winners, but yesterday I took an under that was obliterated pretty quickly.
Monday, I had a loser on the Minnesota Twins almost instantly. Putting these out publicly can be difficult, but I remind myself that the next win is around the corner and I've been more profitable than in debt for betting. Let's try and get out of this mini slump with a win between the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies.
The Nationals are the talk of a lot of trade scenarios at the moment. They are 51-51, which is significantly better than most people expected them to be at this point in the season. There are only two issues — one, you can't really expect them to win the division because all of the teams (save the New York Mets) are good this season; and, two, this team was expecting to be bad this year, so the original plan was to trade pieces away and build for the future.
The team has been really good on the road this season, which is surprising. They are 31-20 away from home. Looking to improve on that mark is Cade Cavalli. For the season, Cavalli has a 6-4 record with a 3.78 ERA, and a 1.31 WHIP. His ERA is a bit lower on the road, but nothing all that remarkably different. He has a decent mixture of outs from strikeouts, flyballs, and ground balls. He has posted quality starts in four of his past five outings, but also has two starts of less than three innings in two of his past six. Only Troy Johnston has hit against Cavalli and he is 0-for-3.
The Rockies are about as bad as expected. Some were predicting them to be the worst team in baseball, and that seems a bit far. The Mets and Angels might compete for that this season. Still, the Rockies have very little to be excited about this year. They are 41-62 for the season, but are at least successful at home with a 24-28 record. They have some interesting trade pieces themselves as Hunter Goodman and Jack McCarthy might be of interest to multiple playoff pushes. This Rockies team needs to build their farm system, so it does make sense to trade some players away.
The bigger issue is that they will always need pitching. The team has never really had a reliable arm in the rotation. Sure, they signed Mike Hampton years ago, but that didn't go great. It does seem like even when they try to make a splash in free agency for hitters, it doesn't work out (read: Kris Bryant). It is far too early to say Gabriel Hughes will be reliable, but today's starter does look good in his first few games for the Rockies. He has allowed just five earned runs over 14.1 innings (two starts and one relief appearance).
I was able to grab a win on the Reds when they faced Hughes the other day and I think we can get another one here. The Rockies aren't a great hitting team, and despite them being better at Coors Field, I don't think they are going to do well against Cavalli. Part of what I like about the Nationals is how Cavalli mixes pitches and can get outs in many different ways. Pitching at Coors is always an issue, but I'll be taking the Nationals to win this one.
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