Framber Valdez and wind-blown Wrigley Field make Tigers vs Cubs under 8.5 a compelling MLB play
Yesterday brought a loss on the Twins as I was backing the wrong horse in the race, apparently. The normally reliable Joe Ryan looked awful and allowed a bunch of runs early. I actually prefer to lose this way because I don't need to pay attention to it. It was the wrong read, and I can start looking at the next day of games. That was a game between two AL Central teams; I'm going to try one with another from the division as the Tigers take on the Cubs.
The Detroit Tigers are still below .500, but no one in the division has run away with the lead, so there is still a chance they can turn it around. You don't need to give them a big reminder about how August and September can change a division race. They were massive favorites last year to win the division, and the Guardians had a phenomenal stretch to steal the division. The Tigers got the last laugh as they won in the playoffs. Still, this team needs a jolt in one way or another, and all the talk surrounding them is about if Tarik Skubal will be traded or not.
During the offseason, they knew they would have to come to a decision about Skubal, and they signed Framber Valdez, the best available starter, to kind of soften the blow of losing Skubal. For the year, Valdez is 5-6 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Those numbers aren't terrible, but they also aren't exactly top-of-the-rotation quality, either. Valdez has done a pretty good job of keeping the ball down, overall. He has 178 ground balls as opposed to 158 fly balls, and that doesn't count his strikeouts. Cubs hitters haven't done particularly well against Valdez, either, batting just 4-for-32 against him.
The Chicago Cubs are basically in the same spot they were last season. They were solid as a club, but they are still looking up at the Milwaukee Brewers. They are one of the streakier clubs in baseball, and if their offense starts to slow down, they are really going to struggle. That's mostly because the pitching staff seems to be held together by duct tape and Band-Aids. They've made a couple of trades to get some arms that might help them for the year, but no one you really want to go into the postseason with.
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One of those trades they made was for today's starter, David Peterson. His numbers are pretty ugly, but the Cubs either thought they could turn him around or saw something in him that made them think it was a worthwhile investment. He is 4-7 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.64. He was much better in his last outing for them than his first. Against the Orioles, he went five innings and allowed two hits and one earned run. Against the Cardinals, he allowed 10 earned runs on nine hits over 3.2 innings. The Tigers are 3-for-8 against him.
Some ballparks have a bigger impact on betting than others. When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field, the ball flies out, and it seems like the total can't be high enough. Tonight, the wind will be blowing in. Peterson is more of a fly ball pitcher, but there shouldn't be too much damage against him, considering the wind can knock stuff down. Valdez is more of a ground ball pitcher. I think this game will go under the 8.5 total tonight thanks to both pitchers being aided by the wind. The Tigers also aren't a major offensive force to begin with. Give me the under.
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