Reporter's Notebook: The Republican-led vote that revealed Democrats' new divide on Israel

Things sometimes evolve slowly in politics. There’s a perception, axiom or maxim which is agreed upon in politics. But over time, it changes.

Sometimes the change is subterranean. The tectonic political plates move. But no one is quite aware of what’s happening until one event crystallizes the shift.

Such is the case with support in the Democratic Party for Israel.

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The politics of supporting Israel have moved for several years now. Especially after Israel’s response to the deadly attacks by Hamas and pro-Palestinian groups on October 7, 2023.

But then there’s that one moment which seems to change everything.

That was certainly on display in the House of Representatives during a single roll call vote last week.

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., engineered an amendment to a State Department funding bill to cut off $3 billion in aid to Israel. Some Democrats viewed this as a political effort to cleave the party.

Whether it was political or not remains to be seen. But Massie’s amendment split Democrats nearly down the middle.

The House defeated Massie’s effort, 314 to 104. Massie was the only Republican who voted in favor of slashing aid to Israel. But 103 Democrats joined Massie to also suspend the assistance. Ten Democrats voted "present," only 98 Democrats voted to reject Massie’s effort.

The Democratic divide over Israel has widened for a while now. It used to be rare to have more than a few Democrats who wouldn’t stand beside Israel. But that House roll call vote truly underscored where the party is now. It exposed deepening internal fissures.

"This is an important moment because nothing will be the same on this issue ever again," observed Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, chair of the House Progressive Caucus. "It used to be that just a small number of House Democrats would vote against sending taxpayer dollars and weapons for the Israeli military. Then, two years ago, 37 House Democrats voted to not send billions of dollars to the Israeli military."

Casar added that this was "not the end. This is a new beginning" for Democrats.

"Democrats here in the House have finally decided to do what the people, our voters, the constituents we represent, have been asking us to do," said Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn. "I am proud that they have finally decided to lead with their morals."

The left says the party is simply reflecting where its core voters stand.

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"You're seeing a shift. The American people are growing weary of this war and what's happening," said Rep. Julie Johnson, D-Texas.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., argued the vote wasn’t "a litmus test" for the party. But said the vote addressed another phenomena.

"Americans of all backgrounds are deeply frustrated that our needs are not being met at home. But our resources are being sent abroad in a way that is not representative of our values and not representative of who we are," said Ocasio-Cortez.

Former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., is retiring from his seat early next year. Few lawmakers from either party have been as vocal as Hoyer in supporting Israel over the past four decades.

"This amendment would embolden the enemies of peace, those pursuing the complete elimination of Israel and those who seek the death of Jews," said Hoyer. "It's a vote against American security."

Hoyer stepped back from the House Democratic leadership in early 2023. But today’s Democratic leaders concede the party currently views Israel through a different lens.

"It's not lost on me that the actions the (Israeli) Prime Minister has taken has not made it easier for us to be supporters of a strong U.S.-Israel relationship," said House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-CA.

Even Democrats who voted in favor of the aid say there are shifts in Israel which prompted Democrats to recalibrate their views.

"I think a lot of people are concerned about Netanyahu and are concerned about some of the activities over the past couple of years," said Rep. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y.

Rep. Wesley Bell, D-Mo., voted against cutting off money for Israel. Bell is a freshman who defeated progressive former Rep. Cori Bush, D-Mo., in the primary two years ago. He then won the general election that fall. Bush is a skeptic of Israel. She is challenging Bell in next month’s primary.

"It's important that we do stand with our allies because our sworn enemies are not going away," said Bell.

It’s unclear if Bell’s vote – pitted against Bush’s more progressive stance – could dictate who wins the primary. But it’s worth watching.

Pro-Israel Republicans worry about the anti-Israel tide shift on the Democratic side of the aisle.

"I think they've been captured by crazies. You can see it in their elections by people who hate Jews." Said Rep. Randy Fine, R-Fla.

But the new positioning by the Democratic party concerns Sen. John Fetterman, D-Penn., He’s a staunch ally of Isreal. Fetterman is threatening to desert Democrats if the party deserts Israel.

"That's my red line in the Democratic party," said Fetterman. "Look at the people that are winning these primaries right now. They're not just ‘I'm just pro-Palestinian. I am deeply anti-anti-Israel.’"

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Notably Fetterman did not say that he would necessarily become a Republican. But Democrats need Fetterman in their fold.

Republicans hold a 53-45 advantage over the Democrats. Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Angus King, I-Maine, caucus with the Democrats. That gets you to 47 senators who align with the Democrats. So Democrats need a net win of four seats to seize control of the Senate next year. Democrats hope to hold Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire. But they are also looking to flip seats in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Alaska. Any combination of four seats scores Democrats the majority.

But let’s say Democrats do collect four seats and earn an effective 51-49 advantage. Fetterman could make the Senate 50-50 if he bolts from the Democrats. The Senate has historically worked out a power-sharing arrangement during other 50-50 breakdowns. But regardless, Republicans would have nominal control thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance, who is President of the Senate.

The Democrats need Fetterman more than he needs them right now.

And as for Israel? Israel needs Democrats more than they need Israel.

Congressional Republicans still support Israel for now. But if Democrats win control of the House - and perhaps the Senate - support for Israel will look very different next year thanks to the Democrats’ morphing politics.

That’s all evolved for some time now. But you can point to last week’s vote as the seminal moment when it all changed for the Democratic party.

And for Israel.