African growth boom follows Trump push to replace aid with trade
FIRST ON FOX: Many African economies are accelerating – booming – since the Trump Administration shifted policy focus from aid to trade, a senior State Department official told Fox News Digital.
In some African countries, doom was forecast when the Trump administration severely cut back USAID funding, but instead there’s been unprecedented economic growth, credited to the Commercial Diplomacy Strategy, introduced at the beginning of President Trump’s second term.
Now, "nine of the 20 fastest-growing economies (in the world) are in Africa," Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of African Affairs Frank Garcia told Fox News Digital.
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Garcia added, "African economies are responding positively to the shift from aid to trade. In 2025, U.S. exports to sub-Saharan Africa increased by 23% to $22.6 billion. And continue to grow this year."
When the Administration cut USAID by 83% early last year, "The predictions were catastrophic: economies heavily dependent on foreign donors—from Ethiopia to South Sudan and Malawi — were expected to collapse. Instead, something quite different happened," Anna Mahjar-Barducci, Project Director at the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), told Fox News Digital.
"The African continent proved far more resilient than expected, citing Ethiopia, which revised its 2026 growth forecasts upward despite the funding cuts," Mahjar-Barducci continued. "According to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow between 4.3% and 4.6% in 2026, outpacing Asia as a whole, whose growth is forecast at around 4.1%. Growth is propelled by massive hydroelectric investments, construction, mining and expanding coffee exports."
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"This is no minor detail," she continued. "For decades, we were told that without international aid Africa would collapse. Now that aid is genuinely drying up, much of the continent is not only avoiding collapse —i t is accelerating. This is precisely the argument that a long-standing school of African economic thought, now more relevant than ever, has advanced for years: aid is not the solution. In many cases, it is part of the problem."
Assistant Secretary Garcia explained how the strategy works:" We see this economic acceleration in Africa. In order to best capitalize on it, the United States is focused on driving private investment, sustainable growth in terms of partnership and treating African nations not as aid recipients, but as capable commercial partners."
He added "Our embassies (in Africa) work directly with the private sector to identify the policies, laws, and regulations constraining U.S. trade and investment. We then work with partner governments to develop practical reforms, identify the officials responsible for implementing them and determine where technical assistance may support implementation."
It's a strategy that appears to be working, with Garcia adding, "The Bureau of African Affairs has worked on 37 commercial transactions that have closed since the beginning of the (current) Trump Administration, representing $25.67 billion in total value, with more still being reported. Embassies across the continent are actively working to close hundreds more. Top sectors include Energy 24%, ICT 19%, Critical Minerals and Mining 11%, Aerospace 8%, Agriculture 8%, Infrastructure 8%."
Mahjar-Barducci criticized the way USAID worked, telling Fox News Digital," When aid flows to governments rather than markets, it tends to finance projects designed in Brussels, Rome, or Washington which are not responding to the actual needs of local economies. Poverty cannot be overcome by treating people as permanent recipients of charity. Poverty can be reduced by recognizing people as entrepreneurs, workers and economic partners capable of building their own prosperity."
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Trade, rather than aid works, Mahjar-Barducci claimed. "The Trump administration's more transactional approach to aid — access to critical minerals, or to citizens' health data, in exchange for funding — should not be dismissed as merely cynical. Unconditional transfers have long been the deeper flaw in the traditional aid model: money with no strings attached removes any incentive for a recipient government to reform and often entrenches the same officials responsible for the underlying poverty."
Enter the America First Global Health Strategy. A senior State Department official told Fox News Digital this week that the administration "has signed 34 bilateral global health Memoranda of Understanding(MOU) representing more than $24 billion in new health funding, including more than $14.3 billion in U.S. assistance, alongside more than $9.6 billion in co-investment from recipient countries."
"24 of these MOUs were signed with sub-Saharan African countries," the official continued. "These new bilateral MOUs are designed to continue life-saving care, build resilient healthcare systems, reduce dependency on American taxpayers and strengthen country ownership."
The administration has also decided to cut funding for a U.S. anti-AIDS program known as PEPFAR. Africa has been hit hard by the HIV/AIDS pandemic. UNAIDS, the United Nations program that deals with the virus, reports that South Africa has the highest infection rate in the world.
But the State Department official Fox News Digital spoke with says South Africa must take some of the blame for cutting help to its own people. "The United States has decided to initiate a phased drawdown of PEPFAR programming in South Africa, following South Africa’s failure to make demonstrable progress on policy requests by the administration. The United States communicated to [the] South African government multiple times at many levels that PEPFAR funding would be terminated if they failed to address President Trump’s concerns."
"PEPFAR was never intended to be permanent," the official added. "Its success is measured by countries' ability to sustain and build upon these gains. South Africa is a middle-income country and is more than capable of supporting its own health programs."
Fox News Digital reached out to the South African government, but received no response.