The Two Key Areas Where England vs. Argentina Will Ultimately Be Decided

In a World Cup semifinal like this, there's so much to unpack. I have already written about the historical, emotional and psychological aspects of England’s World Cup matchup against Argentina, so I want to dive into the tactical elements of this highly anticipated semifinal too. 

On paper, and based on what I have seen from both sides at this tournament thus far, the similarities are possibly stronger than the differences. And even though I think the journey for the Three Lions has been tougher (arguably a tougher group, a hostile, altitude-defying win against Mexico right before facing the heat and humidity of Miami amidst Erling Haaland’s Norway) the fact is that very little separates both of these sides. They are two giants of the game who have shown examples of their genius and their vulnerable state.

There’s also the overall record as England dominates in this area, having only lost twice from its 14 fixtures against Argentina. But one of those losses was in the dramatic match in 1986 to Diego Maradona’s "Hand of God" and his "Goal of the Century."  Then there was the 1998 result – which was David Beckham’s sending-off after kicking Diego Simeone – that ended as a draw after extra time, but resulted in an England loss after a penalty shootout.

The fact is that this one is hard to predict. It’s a contradiction due to a sense of familiarity due to the rivalry, but there's also detachment because they have not faced each other at the World Cup in 24 years.

Let’s also remember that England has never faced Lionel Messi – and that’s a statistic that lives within itself. To stop him is to gamble on your own fate, so I am not even attempting to tell you how Thomas Tuchel plans on doing the almost impossible, especially when England has never even attempted to do it. 

In terms of parallels, let’s focus on the individual side of things and the World Cup superstars as there is a high dependency on them. Both have high-octane, attacking options that contribute significantly higher than anyone else. 

For England, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane have six goals each, making it the first time in men’s World Cup history that any team has had two players net six or more goals in the same tournament. England has scored 13 goals in total, 12 of them from the aforementioned Kane and Bellingham, so the reliance on either is monumental. 

But the same can be said of Argentina and Lionel Messi. La Albiceleste has 17 goals in the competition, more than any other team and one short of its record of 18, which was achieved back in 1930. But eight of these aforementioned 17 goals have come from Messi. Alongside Kylian Mbappé, Messi became the second player on record (since 1966) to earn 10 or more goal contributions in more than one World Cup. 

But I think ultimately, this match is decided in two areas: the midfield and on the flanks. Declan Rice and Eliot Anderson’s battle with the line of Leandro Paredes and Enzo Fernández will test out the stealth and momentum from the center, where much of the action will take place. 

And out wide? Argentina is a very narrow team and winger Anthony Gordon, who attempted more dribbles (10) against Norway than any other English player since Darius Vassell in 2002 (per Opta), could have another strong day against right-back Nahuel Molina. More so on the other side — whether it’s Noni Madueke or his Arsenal teammate Bukayo Saka — against the 33-year-old left-back Nicolás Tagliafico. Lionel Scaloni surely has to find room for defensive midfielder Nico González.   

England should have most of the possession, and I think it’s important for Argentina to use it wisely when it does have the ball. Argentina keeper Emiliano Martínez, excellent with direct, long passes, will be needed once again to find the likes of attacking stars like Julián Alvarez, Messi, Thiago Almada and Lautaro Martínez.

But all in all, we know that this is a game that will far supersede tactics or analytical thinking. This is a match made of emotion and steel-minded determination. There will be situations where the actual gameplan can determine a conclusion and I think, overall, on paper, England has enough to win this one.

This isn’t a match written on paper. It’s carved out on the pitch from blood, sweat and undying effort. 

From the moment the first whistle goes, therefore, we can throw everything out of the window and just marvel at a true battle where we won’t know the outcome until we find out the answer to the only true, remaining question: who is willing to sacrifice everything for a chance of glory? We’ll have to wait and see.