Fox News Poll: Maine Senate race is tight, with concerns about both candidates

The Maine Senate race is shaping up to be a close contest. 

While majorities have concerns about both major party candidates, the worries about Democratic candidate Graham Platner are more intense.  That’s according to a Fox News statewide poll that also suggests voter motivation is helping keep the race competitive. 

The new poll finds Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins has a small three percentage-point advantage, receiving 50% to Platner’s 47% among Maine registered voters. 

But among the two-thirds of voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote, Platner leads by 9 points, 53-44%. 

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That’s driven by a 15-point enthusiasm gap, as more Democrats (76%) than Republicans (61%) describe themselves as highly motivated to cast a ballot this year.

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Maine voters express concern about both Senate candidates. More than half say Platner lacks the judgment to serve as a U.S. senator, while a similar share believes Collins has been in office too long. 

Yet concerns about Platner run a bit deeper. Nearly 4 in 10 are extremely worried about his judgment compared with 3 in 10 who say the same about Collins' lengthy tenure.

Roughly one-third of independents are extremely concerned about both Platner’s judgment (33%) and Collins’ tenure (30%). Only 10% of Democrats express concern about Platner, and only 10% of Republicans about Collins.

About 1 in 10 of those concerned about Platner’s judgment still support him, while 2 in 10 of those worried Collins has served too long continue to favor her. 

In 2024, Harris beat Donald Trump statewide by nearly 7 points. 

"Along with North Carolina, Maine is the Democrats’ most obvious Senate target — a blue state with a restless electorate and a 30-year establishment Republican incumbent," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "How do you blow that?  Maybe by nominating someone facing allegations of sexual abuse, racism, and dishonesty.  This race could demonstrate whether partisan and populist loyalties trump all else."

In the horse race, Collins’ edge primarily comes from men (+10 points), voters without a college degree (+15), gunowner households (+21), and rural voters (+8).  For the most part, she is matching her performance among these groups compared to her most recent re-election, according to the 2020 Maine Fox News Voter Analysis election survey. 

Platner is preferred among women (+5 points), voters with a college degree (+15), and suburban voters and moderates (+10 each). He is underperforming former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 support among those groups.  The 2024 Maine FNVA finds she won women by 10 points, voters with a degree by 42, suburban voters by 27, and moderates by 24. 

Despite Collins’ reputation as a moderate Republican, 97% of MAGA Republicans favor her.  Among non-MAGA GOPers, 82% go for Collins and 15% for Platner. 

Collins garners more within-party support than Platner, getting 93% of Republicans, while he gets 86% among Democrats. Independents favor Platner by 2 points, 47-45%. 

While Platner is a veteran, he trails Collins by 18 points among military voters.

About 8 in 10 of both Collins (79%) and Platner backers (81%) are committed to their choice, while 2 in 10 voters say they could still change their mind. 

Only 1 in 10 Maine voters say they are getting ahead financially.  More than 4 in 10 say they’re falling behind, while about half are holding steady. 

The most important issue to Maine voters in deciding their Senate vote is inflation (30%). That’s followed by political divisions within the country (19%), healthcare (17%), and immigration (14%).  Far fewer prioritize unemployment, Iran, abortion, or crime as their top issue.

Inflation ranks first among independents and Democrats, while Republicans narrowly put immigration and border security ahead of inflation.

Collins, first elected to the Senate 30 years ago, won reelection by 9 points in 2020.  Still, slightly more view her negatively than positively by 3 points (47% favorable, 50% unfavorable).  Platner’s personal rating is weaker, with negative ratings by 10 points (43-53%).  President Trump’s ratings are negative by 19 (40-59%).  

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hannah Pingree has a 17-point positive rating (53 favorable vs. 36% unfavorable).  Republican Bobby Charles is viewed about evenly (39-40%), although some 21% are unable to rate him.

In the gubernatorial race, Pingree leads Charles by 11 points, 53-42%.  Her lead expands to 18 points among those who are extremely motivated to vote in November.

Seventeen percent of those favoring Collins in the Senate race cross party lines to support Pingree for governor, while 5% of Platner backers go for Charles, the Republican.

Sitting Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who is term limited, has served since 2019. She suspended her campaign in the U.S. Senate race in April but has yet to endorse Platner.  

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Conducted June 23-27, 2026 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,003 Maine registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file.  Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (102) and cellphones (653) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (248).  Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher.  In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.  Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.  Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100. 

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.