Iran nuclear deal hinges on IAEA access to long-blocked atomic weapon sites, experts say

Having crushed Iran's nuclear capabilities during two wars in joint attacks with the Israelis, the latest and most significant chapter of whether there will be peace is whether the regime will allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency access to its nuclear weapons facilities.

Conflicting statements and reports from President Trump and Iran's foreign ministry suggest the U.N.’s IAEA will face the same recalcitrant policy from Tehran it has experienced for two decades in blocking its inspectors from conducting robust verification of the clerical regime’s vast nuclear facilities, including underground compounds. The IAEA sticking point might be a deal-breaker for President Trump.

David Albright, who is widely viewed as one of the world’s leading experts on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, told Fox News Digital the "IAEA comes up short" in its efforts to secure information and verification about Iran’s nuclear weapons program because "Iran has not cooperated for twenty years."

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Albright, a physicist and president of the Institute for Science and International Security said, "Iran loves to generate plans of action that can be extended" and the process becomes a "pointless exercise."

For Iran experts like Albright, Iran’s skill in the art of procrastination has allowed it to stretch out talks over the decades while working to advance its work on a nuclear weapons device and a missile system to deliver it.

As a result, Albright said "it colors my view of the MOU [Memorandum of Understanding]" agreed to between the U.S. and Iran that codifies IAEA inspections of Iran’s atomic weapons program.

Albright sees the IAEA as a key test for the success of U.S.-Iran talks. "The way Iran treats the IAEA will tell us if the negotiations are meaningful," adding that Tehran’s regime has treated the IAEA terribly in the past.

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The website of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared in a statement that "Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei, speaking to reporters, denied reports published by certain media outlets claiming that the Islamic Republic of Iran has invited the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect its nuclear facilities."

A headline in the Islamic Republic News Agency Wednesday stated, "No plan for access to Iran’s attacked nuclear facilities without final deal, says deputy FM." The regime-controlled outlet noted that Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi wrote on his X account that no meeting was held with Grossi in Switzerland, despite the IAEA head requesting that Iran meet with him. "There is no plan for access to the facilities that were attacked or to the nuclear materials," Gharibabadi wrote.

On Friday in Japan, IAEA Director Raphael Grossi told reporters, "This agreement expressly indicates that the nuclear part will be supervised, monitored, by the IAEA." He added that "a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was subscribed by the two presidents, by President Donald Trump and President Pezeshkian from Iran, and this agreement expressly indicates that the nuclear part will be supervised, monitored, by the IAEA." 

He noted that "initial conversations" have started about inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites. "We hope to be there soon," he said. It is unclear if Grossi's team will examine all Iranian nuclear weapons facilities and suspected nuclear sites.

The IAEA declined to answer a detailed Fox News Digital press query on why previous IAEA oversight efforts failed; what would be different this time; whether inspectors can access meaningful sites or only symbolic locations; and would the IAEA focus on access to the Pickaxe Mountain facility versus sites already damaged or buried.

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Albright said Israel’s government has identified ten or more sites where Iran is suspected of being involved in nuclear weapons. The IAEA spokesman declined to comment on whether their inspectors will demand to visit those sites.

Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital that "Iran should be made to come clean and allow inspections not only at declared nuclear sites — especially the ones damaged during Operation Midnight Hammer — but also at universities, military bases and other state organizations that have been used to engage in dual-use research which is applicable to the development of a nuclear weapon should there be a leadership decision to do so. Inspections on Iran’s nuclear weaponization program were not part of the original 2015 JCPOA, which was one of its weaknesses."

The JCPOA, whose formal name is the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was negotiated by former President Obama’s administration in 2015. Albright, a sharp critic of the JCPOA, said the Obama deal accepted that Iran did not cooperate and "swept it under the rug."  Albright warned that "It is really important that the U.S. [Trump administration] not do a JCPOA."

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Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. He said at the time the JCPOA was a "horrible one-sided deal that should never ever have been made."

Brodsky stressed that "Any new agreement should include more robust inspection powers. Iran’s denial of inspections at the damaged nuclear facilities since June 2025 violates its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty."

When asked about the IAEA’s impotence with respect to intrusive sanctions on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a White House spokeswoman referred Fox News Digital to Vice President JD Vance and Grossi’s comments.

"The Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country. That is a major milestone for the American people, and the first step in permanently denuclearize, easing or permanently ending a nuclear weapons program in Iran," Vance said on Monday. He added, "And that's exactly what we wanted to do. That's exactly what we asked to happen."

President Trump wrote on Truth Social: "Despite their protestations and false statements to the contrary, coupled with the drumbeat of the Fake News, which is doing everything possible to make the U.S. Victory as small and insignificant as possible, Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future (Infinity!!!). This will insure ‘Nuclear Honesty.’ If they did not agree to this, there would be no further negotiations! "

The Islamic Republic’s spokesman to the U.N. did not respond to a Fox News Digital press query.

The U.S. State Department declined to comment.