Why the Cubs are worth backing against a Mets team that is nine games under .500 this season
I hope everyone had a nice Father's Day yesterday. Now, the next thing we have to look forward to is the Fourth of July, which is my favorite day of the year. We have some time before that happens, though, and hopefully a lot of money to make in the meantime. I'm going to try to grab some money on the Cubs and Mets game that happens tonight.
The Chicago Cubs are still above .500, but are one of the more inconsistent teams in baseball. They have a losing record on the road. They have won 10 games in a row twice and lost 10 games in a row once. Take out those streaks, and this team is 20-27 for the year. That's concerning, and the front office needs to figure out how to help them be more consistent. I think the big issue here is the pitching staff being injured, but they weren't that deep to begin with.
Today, they send out Shota Imanaga, who has been at least reliable in terms of making starts, but not quite reliable in terms of performance. Imanaga is 4-6 for the season with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. The WHIP being that low does seem to encourage the thought that the Cubs starter is keeping people off the bases. His ERA might even be fine if he didn't have three straight games where he allowed five or more earned runs. For the year, he has given up 41 earned runs, and 26 of those came in a four-game stretch. Maybe he has made the adjustments needed because he has allowed just one earned run over the past 10.2 innings; unfortunately, all of those innings came against the Rockies.
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The New York Mets haven't been inconsistent; their problem is they've just been bad. They are nine games under .500 for the season, and even at home. This is a team that has repeatedly invested in the roster, and the team doesn't seem to be responding the way they need to. Juan Soto and even Bo Bichette are doing very well this year, but some of the other players have been struggling. Francisco Lindor is injured, and other guys just look uncomfortable.
I do think the pitching staff is also an issue for the Mets, just like the Cubs. The Mets have a better ERA, but they don't have any top-tier starters. They send out Kodai Senga to the bump tonight, and he has been brutal in limited action this year. He is 0-5 for the season with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP. He has only made two home starts this year and hasn't completed three innings in either of those outings. Cubs hitters are batting .244 against him.
I don't love either team in this game. Imanaga is probably the better pitcher, but you are kind of gambling any time he takes the mound. He is a good pitcher, but he is also very inconsistent. In any given situation, he could allow 10 earned runs or he could throw a one-hitter.
I do think the Cubs are the better team in this game, but they are on the road, where they've struggled. I'll still back them as I think they are still reasonably priced with a -125 line. I do feel like the total of 8.5 is too low. The problem is if you get Imanaga throwing a good game, it will get sweaty. I'll just take the Cubs through five since it is the same price, and I think a lot of this game hinges on the starters.
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