Guardians at plus money against struggling Astros feels like a steal in American League showdown

It was a rough one yesterday. I had the Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays game and took the Cubs to win. They jumped out to a five-run lead early in the game and couldn't hold it as they gave up eight runs to the Blue Jays late in the game. It can be frustrating how quickly a win can turn to a loss.

Let's dodge that fate Sunday as the Cleveland Guardians take on the Houston Astros.

The Guardians are once again in first place in the AL Central. I often discuss how the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers find ways to be competitive every year despite not getting top-tier talent on their team. Lost in that mix are the Guardians, who always seem to have a competitive team as well. They do have a superstar, but because he plays in Cleveland, Jose Ramirez gets far less attention than other top players in the league. The good news for the Guardians is that he isn't even having a great year this year, and they are still winning.

Cleveland will send out Slade Cecconi. One of the things that makes the Guardians so successful each year is finding talent or bringing out the best in their pitching staff. They haven't really been able to do that with Cecconi yet. He is 3-5 for the season with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He has made double the road starts to home starts, so the numbers are a bit skewed, but he does have a higher ERA on the road than at home. The good news is he has been locked in most of May and all of June. He allowed three or fewer runs in eight straight starts, but he also has completed six innings just twice in that stretch. He has allowed two or fewer in each of the past three games.

The Astros were a team that was winning no matter how many players they lost. Obviously, they had a major scandal that helped them win a World Series, but they have also had a lot of top talent go through their clubhouse. Even after big-name players left, the team continued to do well. It may be catching up to them, finally, as they are just 36-42. The good news for Houston fans is that they still have a chance to win the division, as they are only a handful of games back.

They are going to need to get some help from their pitching staff, though. If you combined the Astros offense and the Guardians pitching, you'd probably have a really strong World Series team. That's not going to happen, though. Today, they need Kai-Wei Teng to deliver a good performance for them. He has only made a handful of starts this season, as he started in the bullpen. For the season, he has a 4.31 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. It hasn't been too pretty in his past few starts, though. He allowed 14 earned runs in 12.1 innings this month.

Astros hitters are 12-for-36 against Cecconi. That's the major cause for concern when trying to back the Guardians. Isaac Paredes is 3-for-6 against him with a homer. That's not crazy good, but it is the one guy who stands out. The Guardians haven't had much experience against Teng, so there really is not much to speak of with that.

I think there are two looks in this game. The over 8.5 makes a lot of sense because Teng has been allowing a ton of runs. However, the Guardians' offense isn't exactly the most impressive aspect of the team. I think it makes more sense, given the way Cecconi has been pitching, to take the Guardians to win the game. I'm really not sure why we are getting them at plus money, but I'm happy to take it. Give me Cleveland on the moneyline.

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