American League Central showdown: How to bet series opener between White Sox and Tigers
A 1-1 day on the diamond yesterday isn't exactly what I wanted, but I'll take it, as it is always better than losing both plays. The one win on the Twins was pretty sweat-free and no issues. The loss on the Red Sox was a little more frustrating. Trey Yesavage, to his credit, threw a great game, but the Red Sox tied it up and then blew it late. Oh well, let's go to the AL Central for this one.
The American League Central Division leader plays in this game, only it isn't who any of us expected. As I've said about other teams, this isn't the time to start printing playoff tickets. However, it is very cool that the Chicago White Sox are leading their division when they were expected to be a bottom-feeder this season. They are 39-34 for the year, and giving South Side fans a reason to cheer for the first time in a bunch of years. It would be shocking to see them finish this out, but it also would be equally surprising to see if the White Sox make a splash in the next month via trade.
They will almost certainly need some pitching if they want to close this out. If they want to make a full push for a trophy, they will need a couple of arms, a bat and maybe something else. Today, they are using journeyman Erick Fedde as their starter. He has been okay for the team, but nothing special. He is 2-5 for the year with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. One major reason for concern today is that Fedde has been awful on the road with a 6.18 ERA in five starts. He did have a solid win against the Tigers in late May, going four innings and allowing four hits and two earned runs.
The Detroit Tigers are making the news today because of their starting pitcher. We are all well aware of the fact that Tarik Skubal is likely to make a boatload of money this offseason, but we are equally aware that he may be traded before the deadline. He said yesterday that if the Tigers don't improve, it is probably more than just him who will be traded. For a team that has made the postseason two years in a row, they look very bad at the moment. They are 14 games under .500, and are 27 games under since August 23 of last year.
TIGERS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO TRADE TARIK SKUBAL BEFORE DEADLINE AS PLAYOFF HOPES FADE, REPORTS SAY
We know that Skubal is on the wish list of any team, but if I am acquiring him, I do want to see that he will be healthy for the remainder of the year. This will be just his second start back since landing on the injured list. He went 4.2 innings against the Guardians, allowed five hits and gave up three runs (two earned). He hasn't faced the White Sox this season, but has seen them quite a bit over the seasons. They are batting just .209 against him, but Randal Grichuk has actually succeeded, going 4-for-11 against him.
Any time Skubal takes the mound, the books are going to skew the moneyline in his favor. It makes sense; he gives the Tigers a very good chance to win every five days. However, I'll likely never pay that type of price for a baseball game. The value is on the White Sox as Skubal needs to figure out his pitching again after missing some time. I won't bet that either, though. I don't hate the Tigers -1.5 at -105.
Instead, I'm taking the under 8 in this game. The reason is that Skubal may not be quite as crisp, but if he is, we will see no runs from the White Sox. The Tigers are averaging just four runs per game, and the White Sox offense is giving up just about that amount as well. Most of the Tigers' games are low-scoring. The White Sox have given up a lot of runs lately, but I just don't see the Tigers getting there, even against Fedde.
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