Red Sox pitching ace Sonny Gray eyes another home win as Blue Jays send struggling Trey Yesavage

If you haven't been watching this baseball season, I think you'd be pretty surprised to see where some of the teams are. Not only that, but I think we should have a very intriguing stretch run. I'm sure some teams will pull away from the pack, but there are 23 teams that are all within six games of .500 or better. Sure, a lot of them have losing records, nine to be exact. However, there is still hope, and that might be all you need heading into July.

The Toronto Blue Jays are one of those teams that have a losing record, but still have a lot of hope. They are a team that isn't necessarily filled with top-tier names or talent (although they do have Vlad Guerrero Jr.), but they made a big statement last year and are still looking for their footing this season. Part of the struggle, or probably most of it, has been the struggles of their pitching staff. The team has gotten 15 starts from Kevin Gausman, 13 from both Dylan Cease and Patrick Corbin, but nine or fewer from Trey Yesavage, Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber.

Injuries are always an issue for any team, but when your starters are unavailable, it magnifies basically everything else. Yesavage goes today, and he will be making his 10th start of the season. After a solid run through about the middle of May, he has struggled. Since May 25, he has allowed 17 earned runs over 22.1 innings. This is the first stretch of struggle for Yesavage in his career. Is this just a blip, or has the league figured him out? I think it is fair to question. He faced the Red Sox in his debut this year and allowed four hits in five scoreless innings.

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The Boston Red Sox have reports that they have a lot of hope in the remainder of the season, but it is hard to see where that is coming from. They are currently in last place in their division with 15.5 games of space between them and the Yankees. What is most concerning, at least in my opinion, is how bad they've been at home this year. They are just 12-24 for the season. They were 38-43 at home in 2024, so it isn't exactly like a very long time since they last posted a losing home record. Still, this one stands out.

Today, they have a guy who has done well for them at home, Sonny Gray on the mound. We bet Gray's last start, and it was a no-sweat victory. Overall, Gray is 8-1 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. I expect his season to likely include an All-Star appearance and probably a different uniform at some point. He probably won't want to leave Fenway Park, because at home, he is 4-0 with a 2.32 ERA. Overall, the Red Sox have won nine of his 12 starts this season, and he owns five of the 12 wins at Fenway this year.

Gray hasn't faced Toronto this season, but they've had some decent success against him in past games. No one in particular stands out more than anyone else as being great aside from maybe Andres Gimenez who has three extra-base hits against Gray in 20 at-bats. Vlad Guerrero Jr. might be worth fading as he is 0-for-7 against Gray.

The bet here doesn't need to be on a player prop, though. The best thing we can do right now is just continue backing Gray in starts at home. Additionally, Yesavage has looked really bad lately, so it is worth fading him until we see he can make the needed adjustments. Give me the Red Sox at -125.

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