Padres vs Cardinals preview: Why San Diego offers betting value despite St Louis' surprising season
We have reached the end of the road with the NBA and NHL seasons as both concluded in the past two days, which means we have nothing but baseball for the next few months in terms of the big four sports.
However, we still have WNBA and World Cup action to give some attention to as well as golf and UFC. There are always a bevy of options, but baseball will most likely take center stage for me. Tonight, we have the San Diego Padres taking on the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Padres have a winning record, but still remain one of the most confusing teams in baseball. They are always looking to make a splash via the trade deadline or in free agency, but it just doesn't ever seem to be exactly what is needed to field a full-fledged winner. They are 37-33 for the season and do have a winning road record. So, something is going correctly, but we know they are looking for a Wild Card berth and then hoping they can get lucky in the playoffs.
Instead of looking ahead, let's look at who they have on the hill today. That would be Lucas Giolito. He is 2-1 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. This will be just his sixth start of the season, and he has allowed a different amount of earned runs in each of his outings. He has allowed 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 earned runs. So does that mean he will allow five today? Probably not, but it is a quirky thing that I noticed. Cardinals hitters are just 1-for-14 against him, but obviously that sample size is a bit too small to depend on.
The Cardinals were supposed to take a year off from being good. They've taken the past few off, but this was one where they fully embraced trying to rebuild the club. Instead, they've found a lot of success from journeymen and youngsters. They are 38-31, and could consider bolstering the team at the deadline if they want to give them a true postseason shot. I think it would be hard for them to win a playoff spot with the roster they have at the moment, but they've proved me wrong so far, so there is no reason not to believe in them moving forward.
The main concern I have is that their pitching just isn't that good. They aren't exactly terrible by any means, but they don't have a true ace to get them a win when needed. Dustin May takes the ball today, and I do like his stuff, but don't think he will ever be more than a third or fourth starter. May is 4-6 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He has allowed 34 earned runs this season with a third of them coming in the first two games.
Having pitched for the Dodgers for so long, the Padres have plenty of experience against May. They are batting .237 against him with both Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. having success against him. Even with May pitching well, I think we can see some success coming for the Padres. The weather should be good for tonight with the wind slightly blowing out to right field.
The Cardinals are a good squad and have been decent at home, but they are beatable there. May is almost certainly the better pitcher, but I think we can see the Padres get to him today. Give me the Padres to win this game, as I think the line is too much in favor of St. Louis, giving us some value.