Trump bet tariffs would bring back American factory jobs. New report says it didn't work

EXCLUSIVE — President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs promise is facing challenges from a new analysis that argues the sweeping trade policy failed to revive manufacturing and instead slowed job creation in the U.S.

The report, obtained first by Fox News Digital, lands months after Trump's signature economic policies was handed a blow when the Supreme Court struck down sweeping tariffs, and businesses are now seeking billions of dollars in tariff refunds.

Trump's April 2025 global tariff rollout marked the largest U.S. tariff hike in decades, delivering on a signature economic promise that higher duties would spark a manufacturing renaissance, bring factory jobs back to the United States and reduce Americans' reliance on foreign goods.

Researchers at the Advancing American Freedom Foundation argue those goals never materialized, and estimate in their report that the tariffs resulted in up to 1 million fewer jobs nationwide than would have been expected under pre-tariff trends.

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Manufacturing — the industry the tariffs were intended to help — fared particularly poorly, according to the damning report. Researchers estimate the sector lost roughly 75,000 positions during the policy's first year, or about 6,250 jobs per month.

"We can say with an over 90% confidence level that manufacturing lost jobs because of the tariffs," Richard Stern, vice president of the Plymouth Institute for Free Enterprise at Advancing American Freedom, told Fox News Digital.

Stern argued the tariffs backfired because many American manufacturers rely on imported components and equipment.

"Most of the Americans that are importing are American businesses, especially American manufacturers and producers," he said. "So the tariffs really ended up being a tax on high-end American manufacturing."

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If nothing else, the tariffs proved to be a windfall for Washington.

Duties climbed from $9.6 billion in March 2025 to $23.9 billion by May, according to Treasury data. By the end of the 2025 fiscal year, tariff collections reached $215.2 billion, roughly triple pre-tariff levels.

In January alone, duties totaled $30.4 billion, up about 242% from $8.9 billion a year earlier. Tariff revenue for the current fiscal year has already reached roughly $230 billion, more than four times the amount collected during the same period last year.

ONE YEAR LATER, TRUMP TARIFFS GENERATED BILLIONS AS REFUNDS TAKE SHAPE

FLOURISH CHART SHOWING TARIFF REVENUE: 29325373

But the report from AAFF, which was founded by former Vice President Mike Pence in 2021, contends the tariffs' revenue success came at a cost.

Researchers found employment growth weakened across most sectors after the tariffs took effect, with manufacturing and trade-related industries among the hardest hit. Their analysis found a 99.9% probability that job growth slowed following the policy change.

When reached for comment about the report's findings, White House spokesman Kush Desai did not address the claims, but instead took a swipe at the group, telling Fox News Digital: "Another useless memo is still not going to make Mike Pence relevant again." 

AFTER SUPREME COURT BLOW, TRUMP ADMIN LAUNCHES $166B TARIFF REFUND PORTAL

Beyond employment, the report points to higher costs for American households and businesses.

According to the report, about 90% of the tariff burden fell on U.S. importers rather than foreign producers. The authors estimate the average American family paid about $1,000 more in tariff-related costs during 2025.

While businesses are seeking refunds following the Supreme Court's ruling, Stern argued that repayment cannot reverse broader economic damage caused during the tariff period.

"You can't undo the damage. You can't undo a factory," Stern said. "There are many that closed in America because they couldn't get their hands on products used for manufacturing."

The report concludes that the tariffs "unlawfully taxed American families, wiped out nearly a million jobs, and were ultimately ruled illegal."

The findings add a new dimension to the ongoing debate over Trump's trade agenda, challenging the argument that higher tariffs would revive domestic manufacturing and create American jobs.