USA vs Paraguay World Cup betting preview: Why the over 2.5 goals is the play for this matchup

Alright, I'm going on a bold adventure here and I want you to take the ride with me. I tell this story fairly often, but I feel like it is worth mentioning here again. A few years back, I didn't bet on hockey. Outkick asked if I could, and I said I would figure it out. I was successful with it and I've been doing it ever since. Now, for the first time ever, I'm drinking the World Cup Kool-Aid and putting a play out here between the USA and Paraguay.

The USA is not a soccer nation. It is really odd considering that soccer is the largest sport in the world, but like the metric system, we decided it just isn't for us. That isn't to say we haven't had successes in the past, but they are few and far between. Our soccer team isn't even like basketball teams in other nations. Those teams are closer to the USA Basketball program than we are to the best soccer teams.

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Still, there has been some renewed hope for the squad this year. I won't pretend to tell you that I know a ton about these players, but they've at least put up some respectable numbers against tougher competition. Over their past four matchups, dating back to March, the team is just 1-3 with at least two goals allowed in each game. They've been shut out once, scored three, two and one goal. 

Paraguay is a soccer country. If you asked me to point it out on a map, I probably couldn't, but I can tell you it has improved its soccer team over the past few years. Paraguay missed each of the past three World Cups by not qualifying, but that changed here as the team has made it for the first time since 2010. A lot of the credit is given to manager Gustavo Alfaro, who has a knack for developing young teams.

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On their squad they have a strong mix of younger players and veteran leadership. It will be interesting to see how the team comes together against some of these tougher competitors. Looking back at their past three games, all since March of this year, they have gone 2-1, beating Nicaragua and Greece. Their loss was to Morocco. I'm not sure that I would say these teams are better than those that the US faced, but they aren't slouches either.

In this matchup, I expect the strategy to be cautious, and attack only when there are golden opportunities. Teams in the World Cup know how important these games are and know that they can get points from draws. You need as many as possible if you want hope of getting out of the group stages.

I think the game should see at least three goals. My call here is a 2-1 final for the U.S., which pays at a decent price if you want to do the exact number. The over for the game also pays at +135 if you want to take that. Even just playing the U.S. -- on the three-way moneyline -- pays at +105. Give me just the over 2.5 goals here though.