Could the next Chinese threat walk into your kitchen on two battery-powered legs?
Within the next ten years, there could be a humanoid robot in virtually every American home and workplace. They will hear and see everything. This is our future. But, a key question remains: will these omnipresent robots be American or Chinese-made? Ensuring that the United States wins the robotics race is both a national security and economic imperative. Both the administration and Congress are now working to address this challenge. Properly calibrated, these efforts demand broad bipartisan support and swift execution.
Increasingly, robots represent the place where AI meets the physical world. Large, stationary single-purpose robots will be replaced by general purpose humanoids that can learn and complete virtually any task. The potential benefits to productivity, efficiency, and safety are astounding.
Imagine a humanoid robot that can care for an aging parent, serve as a personal chef, or assist a surgeon during a complex procedure. These machines will enter burning buildings, clean up nuclear waste, work deep-sea pipelines, and staff dangerous and repetitive roles in American manufacturing that often cost workers their health and their lives. Goldman Sachs projects that the humanoid robot market could reach $38 billion by 2035. The companies and countries that lead in this technology will enjoy a generational economic advantage and the geopolitical leverage that comes with it.
Which brings us to the threat.
HUMANOID ROBOTS HIT MASS PRODUCTION IN CHINA
This past Lunar New Year, Chinese robots went viral with a choreographed parade of humanoid robots dancing and performing martial arts in perfect unison — a spectacle equal parts impressive and unsettling. It was not an accident. It was a message…a warning. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has identified humanoids as a strategic emerging industry and the country has been pouring billions of dollars of state resources into ensuring Chinese supremacy in this emerging technology. The plan is working. Some market reports indicate that 90% of all humanoid robots are built in China.
This is not simply a commercial problem for America. It is a national security crisis in slow motion.
Consider what a networked fleet of Chinese-manufactured robots, embedded in American homes, hospitals, factories, and government facilities, would mean in practice. These machines see, hear, and map their environments. They connect to the cloud. They receive software updates from their manufacturers that could alter their behavior or extract sensitive data on command. We are not naïve to the risks posed by modern technology. But, humanoid robots are a far more intimate and consequential instrument for surveillance and sabotage. A smartphone knows your location. A humanoid robot knows your home, your family, your routines, and your secrets.
China’s civil-military fusion doctrine and the dual-use potential of humanoids make this even more alarming. The same robot that folds laundry in a suburban home can, with a software update, perform logistics, reconnaissance, or other physical tasks in a military context. An army of commercially deployed Chinese robots is inherently a latent instrument of the Chinese state.
America has faced this kind of strategic technological competition before, and we have won. But, this wasn’t luck. We won through deliberate national strategy, coordinated public and private investment, and clear-eyed policy frameworks. We need the same approach here.
Commercial drones provide the cautionary tale. A decade ago, the United States ceded that market to China without an industrial policy response. Today, Chinese manufacturers control the overwhelming majority of the global drone market. American companies, law enforcement agencies, and even elements of the military found themselves dependent on Chinese hardware before policymakers recognized the scope of the problem. We now struggle to unwind a dependency that should never have been allowed to form in the first instance. To its credit, this administration has tried to address the issue — including by placing foreign-made drones on the FCC’s covered list — but we are playing catch-up and we are still far behind. We cannot afford to repeat these mistakes with humanoids
The Trump administration has shown it understands the stakes in artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, issuing ambitious strategies that marshal federal resources and align both the public and private sector around national priorities. The administration is now actively developing a national robotics strategy. It is critical that this initiative be both bold and broad. Among other things, a National Robotics Strategy should: (1) establish clear global leadership goals; (2) aggressively fund federal procurement, investment, and research; (3) secure the supply chain for key robotic components; (4) cement America as the global leader in robotics standards; and (5) establish a framework that implements stringent data security requirements and prevents infiltration by hostile actors.
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Congress should act in parallel. Senators Schumer and Cotton recently introduced the American Security Robotics Act, which effectively bans the U.S. government from purchasing and operating most humanoid robots manufactured by Chinese firms. This rare show of bipartisanism underscores the seriousness of the situation. The pending bill is a meaningful first step, and Congress should be encouraged to build on it with a thoughtful and nuanced approach to this burgeoning industry. Congress needs to install guardrails that protect the country from the risks posed by fully integrated Chinese robotic systems. But, simultaneously, the government must carefully navigate the reality that key robotics components — including motors and magnets — are not yet manufactured competitively at home. We need to wean ourselves off our reliance on Chinese components and begin making these parts in the U.S. Blunt-instrument bans will hinder American industry from flourishing.
The window to act is open, but not for long. The Lunar New Year video was merely a preview. The country that fields the best humanoid robots will shape the physical world the way that the country that fielded the best semiconductors shaped the digital one. That country should be the United States.
The machines are coming. The only question is whose machines they will be.