Why bettors should back the Phillies on the run line against Blue Jays despite a recent loss
A new week of baseball starts, and I need a new opportunity. The last few baseball picks that I've had crushed me, unfortunately. The good news is that with baseball we get chances every day to recapture those units the sportsbooks are borrowing from us.
Today, I'm looking to recapture one as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Phillies are proving that a manager can make a difference. Maybe this turnaround would've happened even if the team did nothing. After a disastrous start, the team changed leadership and they have run their record to 35-30. While that isn't the most impressive mark, it is strong. Philadelphia is still far behind in the divisional race, but that isn't important. Getting into the postseason is all that will matter, and they've at least positioned themselves to do that heading into the summer months.
I can't imagine anyone would want to face the Phillies in the postseason. The Dodgers, for example, are beatable, and I think the Phillies behind Zack Wheeler, and tonight's starter, Christopher Sanchez, would be a combo that can do it. Sanchez recently set the MLB record for scoreless innings by a left-hander.
He is first in the majors with a 1.46 ERA, second with 103 strikeouts, and a 1.09 WHIP, but that sits at 21st. His May month was ridiculous. He threw more innings (39) than he allowed hits and walks (28). He also struck out 45 hitters. He is as reliable as anyone to turn in six innings of one- or two-run ball. Blue Jays hitters are batting just .204 against him.
The Blue Jays are a team that still has some work to do if they want to get back to where they were last season. They are two games below .500 at the moment, which is still in a manageable situation for them. The problem really lies in the fact that the division is probably the hardest in baseball, so they will need to fight all of the other teams for a wild card spot. To the Blue Jays' credit, they are doing all of their work right now with multiple injuries to their pitching staff. If they can regain health, they should regain the form from last year that made them so successful.
One guy they took a flier on who has worked out for them so far is Patrick Corbin.
Once regarded as the worst contract in the league, Corbin has put together a decent year-and-a-half on the mound for the Rangers and now Blue Jays. Corbin is 2-2 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Those aren't exactly numbers you're going to get excited about as a Toronto backer, but they also are at least acceptable for a fourth or fifth starter. He also had a solid May, but not on the same level as Sanchez, of course. He went 30 innings and allowed 12 earned runs on 35 hits and eight walks. Having been on the Washington Nationals for so long, the Phillies hitters are familiar with him, batting .335 off of Corbin.
When Chris Sale was on the mound the other day, I took him to beat the Blue Jays on the run line for a couple of units. It was a disaster as the Blue Jays won and Sale had one of his worst games of the season. That's sports betting, unfortunately. I don't think I necessarily had the wrong read; I just had the wrong outcome. In fact, I got the bet at plus money and it went live at -119.
Today, I'm going for the same bet. I'll take the Phillies on the run line. Sanchez is too good to pass up and the history of the Phillies against the Blue Jays' starter makes me think this should be a comfortable win for them.
It is baseball, so anything can happen. I think the best bet here is to take the run line through five innings and back the Phillies that way. We should get at least one or two runs from Philadelphia, and Sanchez should turn in his typically reliable performance.
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