Belmont Stakes 2026 at Saratoga Race Course: Best bets, exotics, 'Pick 5' for the Grade 1 stakes races
This will be the final of three consecutive years that the Belmont Stakes will run at the mecca of horse racing: the Saratoga Race Course.
Traditionally held at Belmont Park, the third jewel of horse racing’s Triple Crown has been held in Saratoga during Belmont's renovations and will return to its original home next year.
As you probably already know, we won’t get a Triple Crown winner. Golden Tempo, the winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby and third-betting choice in the Belmont Stakes, didn’t run in the Preakness Stakes. Also, Napoleon Solo, the winner of the Preakness, is skipping the Belmont.
Regardless, because it's Saratoga and one of the five biggest horse racing days of the year, I'm going to the window for five Grade 1 stakes races on Belmont Stakes Day 2026. Here is my Pick 5 and best bets for Races 9-13.
#1 Governor Sam (12-1 morning-line odds)
I’m taking a shot with #1 Governor Sam (12-1) because I like his morning-line odds, given this is a sprint, and he has fast "early speed" and runs out of the No. 1 post. Meaning he should be able to get inside quickly, and maybe he can hold on in this one-turn race.
Also, Governor Sam has two wins and a second in three career starts in Saratoga, and four wins, one second and one third in seven races at 5.5 furlongs, which is today's distance. Lastly, he’s gone off as the betting favorite in 10 of his 14 career races, including three times against graded company.
#8 Twenty Six Black (12-1)
The Horacio De Paz trainee is appealing for similar reasons. He has two wins, three seconds and one third in seven career races at The Spa, and two wins, three seconds and one third in six outings at 5.5 furlongs.
Furthermore, Twenty Six Black ran two 100-Beyer speed figure races in Saratoga last year, which would be fast enough to win the Jaipur.
#5 Solitude Dude (6-1)
His 97 Beyer speed figure is tied for the fourth-fastest race in this field with the second-betting choice #7 Englishman (3-1), behind the betting favorite, #6 Crude Velocity (9-5), who ran two 100 Beyers.
Hence, Solitude Dude shouldn’t be double the price as Englishman. Before this race, Solitude Dude’s longest price was $3.60 at the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, where he finished third by 2.25 lengths behind two contenders in the Belmont Stakes.
But the Fountain of Youth was a two-turn race, and the Woody Stephens is a sprint. Solitude Dude is 4-0 in his four sprints and 2-0 at seven furlongs. Lastly, he has back-to-back blazing-fast workouts in Saratoga heading into the Woody Stephens.
#7 Journalism (5-2)
While Journalism’s third at the Grade 2 Oaklawn in his 2026 debut was disappointing, there’s no shame in losing to White Abarrio and Sovereignty. The former was the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion, and the latter won the 2025 Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes.
Journalism has run a Beyer of 101+ in five races in a row and eight of his last nine, all against graded company. He was the betting favorite for all three Triple Crown races last year. Journalism has the fastest "late speed" in this field, and his neighbor, #6 Knightsbridge, has the fastest "early speed".
Essentially, my handicap is that Journalism can draft Knightsbridge around the course and outkick the rest of the field on the closing stretch.
#5 Deterministic (7-2)
His jockey, Kendrick Carmouche, is popular and profitable in Saratoga during the summer meets, and Deterministic has won four straight races since Carmouche started riding him last year.
Those races included the Grade 1 Fort Marcy this year and last, and the 2025 Grade 1 Four Star Dave and the 2025 Manhattan, both at Saratoga. So, Deterministic is a horse for the course coming in with excellent form.
#7 Commandment (6-1)
I’m a little sketched out that Commandment is getting another jockey change for a fourth straight race. Otherwise, I love his 6-1 morning-line odds for several reasons.
First, Commandment went off at roughly the same price in the 2026 Kentucky Derby, which had a deeper field. Second, he was the betting favorite in the first four of his six career races and the second-betting favorite in the other.
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Third, the Brad Cox trainee had a four-race winning streak entering the Derby, including the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and Grade 1 Florida Derby, where he beat the second-betting choice for the Belmont, #3 Chief Wallabe (3-1).
Fourth, Commandment’s 101 Beyer speed figure in the Fountain of Youth is the fastest in this field and his 100 Beyer in the Florida Derby is tied for second. So, at his best, Commandment is the fastest horse in this race and is tied for the fourth-best price in a nine-horse field.
#4 Renegade (2-1)
If I weren’t philosophically opposed to betting this short of a favorite at Saratoga, the "Graveyard of Champions," then I’d take Renegade here.
I’ve heard many horse handicappers who are way sharper than me say that Renegade ran the best race at the Kentucky Derby but got the "worst trip".
After all, he ran out of the No. 1 post at the Derby and there have only been eight horses to win from the No. 1 post since 1930, and the last horse was Ferdinand 40 years ago. But Renegade is the rightful favorite in the Belmont, and has hit the board in all six starts: Two wins, three seconds and one third.
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His jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., is one of the winningest jockeys every year during Saratoga’s summer meet. However, because of his price, I’m only using Renegade in my trifecta and Pick 5.
#9 Golden Tempo (9-2)
Lining up on the outside and having the slowest "early pace" in this field will allow Golden Tempo to run his race. Remember, he came from out of nowhere to win the Derby and Golden Tempo could get a similar trip in the Belmont.
Or at least that’s my working theory. He is tied for the fastest "late speed" in this race with Renegade, the first-betting choice, and can sneak into the trifecta at the wire.
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