Chris Sale's historic home ERA makes Braves run line a must-bet against struggling Blue Jays

Thursday is one of my favorite baseball days of the week. It is a travel day, which means that a lot of teams aren’t taking the field, but that means I can spend more time digging into games and match ups. Today we have a game between the Blue Jays and Braves that I think will reward us with some cash.

The Blue Jays are still trying to climb their way out of the early-season struggles. They are just 29-33 for the season and could use some help at the trade deadline. There are questions about where the help will come from and in what form. However, I expect ownership to make a move to try and push them back to grabbing at least a wild card spot. Maybe they just need to be healthy; they have three starting pitchers on the injured list. The team was just 29-29 before losing their last four games. It almost feels like a one step forward, two back situation.

Tonight, DraftKings has Mason Fluharty listed as their starter. That means this is essentially a bullpen game for the Blue Jays. I can’t expect the "starter" to go deep into this one, considering he hasn’t pitched more than 1.1 innings in a game this season. He also pitched on Tuesday. The bullpen should be fairly fresh, though. In the series, they’ve only tossed 5 innings. Someone on the team will likely go three or four innings, even if they get rocked. They kind of have to do it. Overall, the Toronto bullpen is about average in the league. 

The Atlanta Braves have been rolling this season. It was a bit of a disaster last year, at least in part due to the injury bug, but we’ve known this is a talented team for years. Are they going to coast to a division title? It is possible. The Phillies have at least started putting pressure on Atlanta, but the Braves still have the biggest division lead in baseball. We all know that divisions aren’t won in June, but for now, the team is rolling.

BRAVES' CHRIS SALE REACHES 2,500 STRIKEOUTS FASTER THAN ANY PITCHER IN MLB HISTORY

Chris Sale is taking the mound tonight for the Braves, and he is once again looking like a Cy Young contender. For the season, he is 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. Those three numbers are all fourth or better in baseball. Chances are that he will end up as a Cy Young finalist (Christopher Sanchez should give him a run for it). Sale has been absolutely elite at home this year. He has a 4-1 record with a minuscule 0.60 ERA. The only runs he has allowed at home this year are two solo homers. Most Blue Jays hitters haven’t faced him, but Vlad Guerrero and George Springer are a combined 10-for-41 against him.

So you’re telling me the Blue Jays have an average pitching situation (at best), have lost four straight, struggle on the road, and now have to face one of the best pitchers in baseball. Not only that, but they face Sale in his best situation — at home, where he's allowed two runs in 30 innings. How can Toronto win this one?

They won’t. The bet here isn’t to take the moneyline; you don’t need an article to tell you the Braves at -207 is a play. I personally don’t like playing baseball games much higher than -135, but I do think the Braves are still technically a value at -207. This should be -250 or higher. My play, however, is on the run line. The Braves to win by at least two runs is +104. It’s crazy to me that it is plus money at all. The Braves have had 12 one-run games this season. That means they are 30-30 on the run line, so we are getting good value on this number, too. Give me this one for multiple units.

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