College grads expect to earn $80,000 a year, but the math isn’t mathing
If you want to understand what's broken about higher education in America, look no further than one statistic.
According to a recent survey, the average college student expects to earn $80,000 a year shortly after graduation. The reality? The average starting salary is closer to $56,000. That's a 30% gap between expectation and reality before a graduate even receives their first paycheck.
And that's not even the worst news.
Recent college graduates are facing an unemployment rate of roughly 5.6%, significantly higher than the national average. Even more alarming, more than 40% of recent graduates are underemployed, working in jobs that don't require a college degree at all. I own five businesses, and the assumption that graduates will make $80,000 a year out of college for most students is ludicrous at best.
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For decades, America sold young people a simple formula.
Unfortunately, that formula is beginning to crack.
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The problem isn't that college has no value. The problem is that millions of students were told a degree was the destination when it was really just one possible route.
Today, many graduates are discovering that a diploma alone no longer guarantees economic success. The labor market has changed dramatically.
Artificial intelligence is eliminating some of the very entry-level jobs that traditionally served as training grounds for new graduates. Companies that once hired armies of junior analysts, assistants, researchers, marketers and programmers are increasingly using AI to automate portions of those roles.
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Employers now expect new hires to arrive with practical skills, like you can actually communicate with someone, and often AI proficiency already in hand. Nearly 35% of employers now expect entry-level candidates to possess AI-related skills, yet only a small percentage of students believe their colleges adequately prepared them.
Think about how absurd that is.
Students are paying 2026 tuition prices to receive a curriculum that often resembles the workforce of 2016.
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Meanwhile, many of the fastest-growing opportunities don't necessarily require a traditional four-year degree. The anti-AI career path may, in fact, end up being more lucrative than the college career path.
Many of these careers can produce six-figure incomes with less debt, less time and a more direct path to employment.
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This is why I believe Gen Z may not have chosen the wrong college major.
Many may have chosen the wrong path entirely.
Before the angry emails start pouring in, let me be clear about this. Engineers, nurses, accountants, doctors and many other professionals absolutely need college and sometimes advanced degrees. Higher education remains a fantastic investment when it is directly tied to a marketable skill.
But we have reached a point where parents and students need to ask a tougher question as a business and life decision.
Not, "What do you want to study?"
But rather, "What problem will someone pay you to solve?" Ask that of AI!
That's how the real world works.
Businesses don't hire degrees.
They hire problem solvers. They hire communicators. They hire people who can boost revenue.
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Today's graduates will likely hold far more jobs over their careers than previous generations, often working in fields unrelated to their degree. My own daughter studied criminal justice in college, and now she is the COO of a concrete and hardscape company. The traditional straight-line career path is disappearing. Adaptability is becoming more valuable than credentials alone.
The biggest mistake young people can make is believing their degree is their competitive advantage.
It isn't.
Their competitive advantage is their ability to communicate, sell, build relationships, leverage technology and create value.
Those skills travel across industries.
Those skills survive economic downturns.
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Those skills survive AI.
The class of 2026 is learning a hard lesson that previous generations didn't have to face quite so quickly.
The degree may get you in the door. Maybe.
But in today's economy, it's what you can do after you walk through it that determines how much you'll earn.