Fox News Poll: Democratic unity, Republican crossovers shape Ohio Senate race

President Donald Trump carried Ohio by more than 11 percentage points in 2024, but a new Fox News survey finds his standing in the Buckeye State has deteriorated — a development that is benefitting Democrat Sherrod Brown in the Senate race. 

By a 15-point margin, Ohioans view Trump negatively: 42% hold a favorable opinion and 57% an unfavorable one. That’s more than a 20-point swing compared to his +6 net positive rating (52-46%) in the November 2024 Ohio Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.

The poll of Ohio voters, released Wednesday, finds Trump’s ratings are about on par with views of Republican incumbent Senator Jon Husted (41% favorable, 50% unfavorable), while challenger and former Ohio Senator Brown is viewed significantly more positively (53% vs. 44%).

That helps Brown outperform Husted by a 53% to 45% margin in the race to fill the state’s Senate seat.  His 8-point lead is outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.  

FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS SEE AI REGULATION AS URGENT, RANK SAFEGUARDS AHEAD OF INNOVATION

Brown garners fully 98% support among Democrats compared to Husted’s 86% among Republicans.  Brown also receives backing from outside the democratic base: 31% of non-MAGA Republicans and 13% of all Republicans.  Only 2% of Democrats pick Husted. 

Husted is favored by White evangelical Christians (+32 points), rural voters (+11), and White men without a college degree (+7).  Brown is preferred by voters under age 35 (+33), independents (+18), and women (+14). 

Non-white voters favor Brown by 58 points, while the race is a dead heat among White voters (49% each).  And the candidates are nearly tied among voters ages 45 and over (49-48%), while Brown leads by 23 points among those under age 45.

The candidates are competing for the Senate seat Husted currently holds after being appointed to replace JD Vance when Vance became vice president. Brown is hoping to return to the U.S. Senate after he narrowly lost his seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024. 

About 7 in 10 of both Brown’s (73%) and Husted’s supporters (69%) are certain of their choice. Overall, about one in four say they may change their mind before voting. 

FOX NEWS POLL: 'RESILIENT DISCONTENT' DEFINES THE US MOOD AT 250TH ANNIVERSARY

By a 6-point margin, more Democrats (82%) than Republicans (76%) say they are extremely or very motivated to vote this November. 

Most Brown supporters, 68%, describe their vote as mainly for him rather than against Husted (30%).  Those who are backing Husted are less enthusiastic about their candidate, with 58% saying their support is mainly for him rather than against Brown (39%).

In a state Trump carried with 55% of the vote, the survey finds being too close to him is now more of a liability than being too liberal.  Some 39% of Ohioans are concerned Brown is "too liberal," including 13% of his supporters. For Husted, 46% overall are worried he is "too close" to Trump, including 10% of his backers. 

Inflation dominates, with 43% saying it is the most important issue in their Senate vote.  All others trail far behind, including healthcare (12%), immigration and border security (11%,) political divisions (9%), jobs (8%), Iran (7%), abortion and crime (4% each).  Notably, inflation is the top issue among independents (50%), Democrats (44%), Republicans (40%), MAGA (34%), and 2024 Trump voters (39%).

Voters focused on inflation favor Brown by 14 points, as do healthcare voters by 44 points, while those prioritizing immigration and border security go for Husted by 76.

On their family’s financial situation, 39% of Ohio voters say they are falling behind, up from 32% who said the same in the 2024 FNVA survey.  The largest number, 49%, say their family is holding steady, down 9 points.

"There’s good reason for the Democrats to be bullish on Ohio," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson. "The state remains solidly Republican, but Democrats are united against Trump allies and independents prefer Brown."

In the race for governor, Ohio voters are divided: half back Democrat Amy Acton (50%) and nearly half favor Republican Vivek Ramaswamy (49%). Fourteen percent who prefer Brown in the Senate race cross-party lines to support Ramaswamy. 

Most Democrats (93%) go for Acton, while most Republicans favor Ramaswamy (89%). Independents back Acton by 8 points (51-43%).

Nearly twice as many Acton supporters (38%) as Ramaswamy backers (21%) say their vote is mainly "against" the other candidate.

Seven in 10 of each candidate’s supporters are certain of their choice.

Although views of Acton are positive by 9 points (46% favorable vs. 37% unfavorable), 16% are unable to rate her. Ramaswamy’s ratings are positive by 1 point (45-44%), while Vance’s are underwater by 7 (45-52%), and opinion splits on sitting GOP Gov. Mike DeWine (48-48%).

CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTABS AND TOPLINE

By more than 2-to-1, Buckeye voters oppose having an AI data center built in their area (32% favor, 65% oppose).  That opposition is across the political spectrum, as majorities of Democrats (72%), independents (64%), and Republicans (59%) are against building data centers.

Conducted May 28-June 1, 2026 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,015 Ohio registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file.  Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (109) and cellphones (653) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (253).  Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher.  In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.  Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.  Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100. 

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.