Knicks vs. Spurs NBA Finals preview: why one expert is picking New York to win the series

At the beginning of the season, I did a podcast with my good buddy, Geoff Clark. We picked our winners and discussed a variety of things from the NBA. There was talk about MVP and who would finish where, but I took the Thunder to win the NBA Championship. I doubled down with that at the beginning of the playoffs. I then tripled down on them by saying they would win Game 7 at home. I was wrong, and now we have the Knicks and Spurs in the NBA Finals.

Getting to the postseason is half the battle, so let’s take a little bit of a look at how teams got here, then the matchups, and ultimately, my pick for who wins and the series spread.

The Knicks were the third seed in the Eastern Conference at 53-29. They had a strong season, but I wouldn’t exactly say it was overly impressive. They were just 22-19 on the road in the regular season, and that, to me, is an indicator that a team might not be very good. Role players tend to play worse on the road, but there is more to it than just that. It can be a sign of a lack of focus or something else, as well. Whatever it is, they’ve been fine in the postseason, going 12-2 with their two losses by a combined two points.

The Spurs had a much more difficult trip to get here, but their regular season saw them go 62-20 and secure the No. 2 seed in the conference. They have home court advantage here, and were 32-8 during the regular season at home. They have, however, lost three games at home this postseason. The Portland Trail Blazers took them to five games, the Minnesota Timberwolves (an ailing team) took them to six games, and the Thunder lost in seven. The Thunder were also missing their second-best player and a very good role player.

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I’m not trying to diminish the Spurs' accomplishments, but they didn’t exactly beat 100% healthy teams, and they struggled while doing it. If the Knicks had that happen to them, everyone would be discrediting them. The Knicks did get their own share of luck, now playing a team that went seven games in their previous series for the third straight time.

Rest is a big advantage, but that doesn’t always mean everything. The Spurs are young, so I really don’t see fatigue being much of a factor. Keep in mind, this Knicks team also has a lot of miles on it, having played in the Conference Finals two years in a row, and having been under Tom Thibodeau who runs players into the ground for a few years. Despite playing just 14 games this postseason, the team has played a lot of hoops over the past few seasons.

In terms of matchups, I expect to see Stephon Castle guarding Jalen Brunson. He’s the key to slowing the Knicks offense. Victor Wembanyama will be against Karl-Anthony Towns and do his best to help off and change Brunson’s drives, just as he did against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The key, in my opinion, is that OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have to win their matchups. De’Aaron Fox hasn’t been a big scorer for the Spurs, but he brings that speed element that can be extremely difficult to deal with.

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The benches are fairly even, but the Spurs do have Keldon Johnson, who won the Sixth Man of the Year, and they have Dylan Harper. This team actually just has an embarrassment of riches if we’re being honest.

We’ve seen the key to beating the Spurs – when the Thunder were knocking down their outside shots, they pushed the Spurs to the brink. When they weren’t, they struggled to score. Even in Game 7, one guy, Cason Wallace, was the lone bright spot for the Thunder role players as he was knocking down triples. So what is the Knicks' weakness? I don’t know that they have one. I’ve said this before, but Brunson is not as good as Gilgeous-Alexander, and he struggled in the series against the Spurs.

This is going to be a tough matchup for both teams. Both of them will be inexperienced here. The more emotional team and the tired team should be the Spurs. However, in the NBA Cup, we saw the Knicks find ways to attack them. At the same time, the Spurs were the better team for three quarters of the game. That’s how I see this series. We may look back on it and say, the Spurs were the better team for most of the games, but the Knicks closed it out. I’ll take a shot and upset the entire New York fan base by taking them to win the series, but I also like the Knicks +1.5 games at -140.

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