2026 NBA Finals preview: New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs best bets for series, MVP player props
For the ninth consecutive season, there will be a new NBA champion as the San Antonio Spurs host the New York Knicks for Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
This is the most highly anticipated finals in years. Courtside seats at Madison Square Garden for Games 3 and 4 will be the most expensive tickets in NBA history as the Knicks try to end their 53-year championship curse against the greatest physical force ever in basketball.
New York historically ripped through the East to return to the NBA Finals since losing to San Antonio in 1999. The Spurs knocked off the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals en route to their first finals appearance since winning the title in 2014.
2025-26 NBA FINALS ODDS: SPURS FAVORED OVER KNICKS
Before we go any further, disclaimer: I'm a Knicks fan. So, if you want to disregard or fade my 2026 NBA Finals, I understand. Yet, since I take my sports betting writer job seriously, I'm only giving out bets and analysis that I believe in. If I didn't, I just wouldn't write about the series.
That said, here are actual bets I have for the Knicks-Spurs 2026 NBA Finals and my logic behind them.
Maybe take this with a grain of salt because a playoff series is a different animal, but NYK out-classed the Spurs this season. The Knicks were 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread with a +12.2 spread margin vs. the Spurs during their two regular-season meetings and the 2025 NBA Cup Championship.
Here is a breakdown of New York's dominance over San Antonio in those games:
That last bullet point is alarming if you're a San Antonio fan or backer. NYK covered the spread by an average of 12.2 points per game despite the Spurs getting 8.4 more free throws per game.
Also, San Antonio’s only win over New York this season came when the Knicks were missing C Mitchell Robinson and wing Josh Hart, and the Spurs were at home, winning by just two points, 134-132.
Victor Wembanyama was -18 and -15 in his two losses to NYK and +17 in San Antonio’s lone win, again, without Robinson and Hart. Their absence mattered because they relentlessly attack the glass on offense, making it difficult for Wembanyama to control the game defensively.
Think about it: Since Wemby has to focus on boxing out and grabbing boards, he cannot close out on New York’s 3-point shooters. Hence, if Wembanyama is protecting the paint and cleaning the glass, the Knicks will have good looks from deep.
NYK ranked third in 3-point percentage during the regular season and has seven guys who can bang threes. San Antonio used what The Ringer's Zach Lowe called a "Wemby Zone" to beat Oklahoma City in the Western Conference Finals, which the Knicks will break with their outside shooting.
Obviously, this bet is "price dependent" because if every player had the same odds, I'd pick Spurs SG Devin Vassell or SF Julian Champagnie. They are the two betting favorites in this market and first and second in made 3-pointers this postseason.
However, given the playmaking abilities of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, and the attention they draw, Bridges should have wide-open looks all series. Wemby will most likely defend and sag off Hart, so I'm not betting him, who is +1500 to make the most 3-pointers in the finals.
Meanwhile, Bridges has been on fire since New York's close-out win over the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the playoffs. He is shooting 62.8% from the field since Game 6 in the first round, even though Bridges was 4-for-16 and 1-for-8 from deep vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 4 of the conference finals.
During the regular season and the 2025 NBA Cup Championship, Bridges shot 42.9% from behind the arc (9-for-21) vs. San Antonio. If he can average three made 3-pointers per game against the Spurs in the NBA Finals, I'm in good shape to cash this bet.
KAT just has too much game to be this long of a price. He made his sixth All-Star team this season and averaged a double-double for the eighth time in his 11-year career.
If the voters had a do-over, they would name Town third-team All-NBA instead of Thunder big Chet Holmgren and Detroit Pistons C Jalen Duren. He has been great defensively this season, and KAT is still the best shooting big in the NBA.
Wembanyama will most likely guard Hart, which means KAT will always have a smaller defender on him. Plus, Towns will make the Spurs pay if they leave him open in the corner as they did with Holmgren last round.
His raw numbers are down from the regular season because the Knicks are beating teams so badly in these playoffs that he is resting for most of the fourth quarters. But KAT is shooting better from everywhere on the floor in the postseason.
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