NBA Finals MVP odds breakdown: Why betting on Victor Wembanyama at -185 is a 'dumb bet'
I've had a rough go of it with the NBA Playoffs. It hasn't been terrible by any stretch, but I've lost a max playoff bet for the first time since I've started publicly giving out picks. I had the Knicks and Thunder as the Finals matchup, and I've seen myself repeatedly picking the wrong side or total in the last round. Perhaps I can get it back on these NBA Finals. Today, we will take a look at how to bet the NBA Finals MVP market.
It is pretty clear there are two top players on each team. Victor Wembanyama is the best player in the series, and perhaps for the next 12-15 years, you might hear people saying he is the best player in the league. I made mention of this elsewhere, but if he wins a championship here, he is setting himself up for an undisputed GOAT resume. It is a long way to go, but there is nothing he can't do. I suppose it helps to be enormous, but other guys have been tall and haven't done what he is doing. The Spurs winning the championship almost certainly will mean that Wembanyama has a great series, but at -185, this is a dumb bet.
It is dumb because the Spurs are -205 to win the series. To be at -185, you need two things: the Spurs to win, and Wembanyama to be the best player. It is highly unlikely anyone else on the Spurs wins, but for only 15 or 20 cents of savings, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me to bet on him winning.
On the other side, a better value, in my opinion, is betting on Jalen Brunson to win the Finals MVP. The Knicks are very much live dogs. They've looked fantastic in the playoffs, haven't had to go through a bunch of brutal battles or games, are rested, and have a deep roster. This will not be an easy win for San Antonio. Brunson is not as good as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Spurs just made life miserable for the MVP, so Brunson will likely have a tough series, but if the Knicks win, expect it to be due to Brunson carrying New York there.
There are players on both teams that I can make a case for to win Finals MVP. I'll go through most of them, but won't go too far in depth on them. Instead, I'll tell you how they can win the award. I'll also share who my favorite would be to bet out of this group.
Karl-Anthony Towns is going to have his hands full guarding Wembanyama. He is a decent defender, but he's not going to shut him down. However, if Towns can stretch the floor, average 20+ points, continue to facilitate as he has in the first three series of the playoffs, and say hold Wemby to around 20 points per game, he could win. I just don't think it is likely.
Stephon Castle is the fourth favorite at +5000. I actually really like this and will put a fraction of a unit on it. Castle didn't deserve the Western Conference Finals MVP award, and he didn't get it. He had far too many turnovers. However, his defense was a major factor in their winning. If he shuts Brunson down, averages his typical averages, and the Spurs sweep or win in five, I think there is real consideration, especially if Wembanyama is fairly average in the series.
OG Anunoby is next at +6000. I also very much like this one. OG is not the primary or secondary option on the team. However, he is one of the better scorers on the team and has been a great option for the Knicks in many of their postseason games. If he keeps up the scoring, he could be a strong consideration and might even lead them in scoring in the Finals with all the attention Brunson will draw. I also wouldn't be shocked to see him guarding anyone on the floor.
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Josh Hart at +15000 is one who is also probably a consideration to me. In terms of value, I think he is mispriced and should be at +10000 or even +8000. Hart is a bit of a do-it-all guy. The value of a triple-double has gone down significantly over the years, but Hart could average it in this series. Assists might be the issue as Brunson tends to dribble the air out of the ball, but Hart is like every role player combined on the Spurs. His impact on the game, on both sides and in many aspects shouldn't be overlooked.
How to bet NBA Finals MVP
I won't waste a ton of money on the NBA Finals MVP. There is a reason that Wemby is the favorite and that Brunson is a close(ish) second. I tend to think of this as a lotto ticket. The Knicks are very live dogs in this series and could win it without much surprise. I personally think that the best looks are taking Anunoby, Hart and Castle. I'd probably recommend playing about a half unit on Brunson, and then split the other half on the other three I mentioned.
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