Havana regime in suspense after Castro indictment with Trump pressure on, says Cuban-born GOP Rep.

Cuban despot Raul Castro’s federal indictment is likely sparking paranoia inside the regime as officials look at what has happened to other despots this year, the one member of Congress who personally experienced the dictatorship's terror told Fox News Digital.

Though no longer Cuba’s formal leader since Miguel Diaz-Canel took over in 2021, Raul Castro still holds a tighter grip on the levers of power in Havana than the island’s established government, House Homeland Security Committee member Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., said.

Gimenez said the indictment, while long overdue, could bring some measure of justice to the families of Americans killed in the 1996 downing of two humanitarian aircraft in the Strait of Florida.

Gimenez said Castro intentionally targeted a group that searched the sea almost daily for Cuban refugees attempting the 90-mile trip to the congressional district he now represents, spanning South Dade to the Keys.

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"We have him on tape saying [he did it]," Gimenez said of Castro — indicted on Cuban Independence Day.

"We cannot tolerate any regime murdering American citizens wherever they may be."

Asked whether Cuba may see a mission similar to the one in Venezuela, where U.S. forces extracted an indicted dictator, Gimenez said every situation is different even if the actors are ideologically and criminally similar.

"I think that the president's going to let this kind of percolate for a while and also continue the pressure on the regime that we've been exerting," he said, agreeing with fellow Miamian Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the Castro/Diaz-Canel regime is collapsing under its own failure.

The suspense — coming amid additional arrests of regime allies stateside and Castro’s charges Wednesday — is proverbially killing the Cuban government, he said.

"The island goes dark for hours and so I think [President Donald Trump’s] going to let it percolate for a while. I'm sure that he is drawing up plans for every contingency. He now has the legal authority to come in and try to arrest him, but I don't think he is going to do that right away."

Unlike Venezuela or Iran, America has a home base in Cuba — Guantanamo Bay.

But Gimenez — who recently visited the compound, and therefore his homeland, for the first time in more than 60 years since fleeing at age 6 — said the geopolitics are such that Gitmo is helpful but not the end-all.

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Guantanamo lies on the opposite side of Cuba from Havana, so U.S. assets would need to be positioned closer in the event of any incursion.

"Just in case," he said. "If something were to happen and the people rise up – so that Raul Castro doesn’t sleep very well at night; not knowing if our helicopters are coming for him."

He said the best idea at present is creating an environment of constant psychological pressure for the regime — so that they are "looking out and [not] inward as much – thinking that somehow, Uncle Sam is just outside there, floating in the water with a big aircraft carrier."

Gimenez said the U.S. government appears "actually serious this time – the first time any administration is taking the kind of action against one of the Castros."

In prior comments, Gimenez referenced an Orange Bowl event attended by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright shortly after the murders, where the Clinton administration promised a response.

Therefore, protesters risking their lives in the streets may feel real change is afoot, Gimenez said, and that unlike in past administrations, the feds will "have their back."

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"[The regime doesn’t] wholesale kill thousands of people [like Iran] but they do put thousands of people in prison; torture them … Let's see what's going to happen inside the island with the Cuban people themselves."

The administration also has a vocal Havana hawk in Rubio, the son of Cuban emigres.

Shortly after the interview, the feds in Miami detained the head of GAESA, Cuba’s public-private military-led entity that Gimenez said is the true lever of power in Havana. DHS then revoked Adys Lastres-Morera’s green card.

Diaz-Canel is a figurehead, Gimenez said, noting Castro leads GAESA and therefore is the end-all.

Gimenez quipped that his Miami colleague Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart made the point that "presidents" of Cuba essentially mean nothing – when he asked another interviewer if they had heard of a past president not named Castro.

Diaz-Balart also noted that his brother, former Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., wrote to the Clinton administration in 1996 demanding action, but none came.

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"So, in the case of GAESA, it is run by military officers under the control of [the] Castros [and] controls 70% of Cuba’s economy… It shows you that there is a government inside a government," Gimenez said.

He argued the estimated $16 billion held by GAESA self-enriches the regime while ordinary Cubans face economic collapse and private industry fails.

In a Spanish-language statement, Rubio noted GAESA is the reason the island has been "plundered" by its government – not from any alleged U.S. oil blockade.

As Gimenez and Rubio spoke, congressional support for the indictment was already building.

Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., told Fox News military intervention in Havana should never be off the table.

"Raul Castro – he’s killed Americans, and I’m so glad he’s indicted," Scott said, adding that a 16-year-old was recently imprisoned for complaining his family lost electricity -- agreeing an uprising may be in the offing.

Rep. Maria Salazar, R-Fla., who represents the U.S.-Cuban diaspora in Calle Ocho, said her community waited 65 years and 10 U.S. presidents to express this "message to the Castros."

"It’s time for you guys to go."

Now, with Castro’s indictment and the predictions of Gimenez, Diaz-Balart and others, Cuban Independence Day may have new meaning by the next time it passes on the calendar.