Fox News Poll: 30% think recent Trump assassination attempt was staged

Three in 10 voters believe the recent assassination attempt against President Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner was staged, according to a Fox News national survey. 

Thirty percent say the shooting was fabricated, including 13% of voters who think it was "definitely" staged. That said, a narrow 52% majority believes the attack was real, with nearly one-third saying it "definitely" happened (31%). 

One in five is unsure whether it was real or fake (18%). 

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The alleged gunman behind the April 25 attack, Cole Tomas Allen, has pleaded not guilty to the four felony charges filed against him by the Justice Department. The incident marked the third attempt on Trump’s life, following two separate assassination attempts in 2024.

Public attitudes surrounding the attack suggest the erosion of a shared reality may have reached a critical tipping point.  Most notably, the partisan divide on the attack’s authenticity is stark.  The survey finds almost half of Democrats (49%) and voters who backed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024 (48%) believe the shooting was staged, while just 10% of Republicans say the same.

Meanwhile, 79% of Republicans believe the event was real, as do 77% of 2024 Trump voters.  That number climbs to 87% among Republicans who identify as MAGA supporters.  By comparison, just 31% of Democrats agree the attack was real.

Views among independents are mixed: 41% say it was real and 34% believe it was staged.

Uncertainty about whether the incident was real or not is highest among independents, with one quarter unsure (25%), followed by 2 in 10 Democrats (21%), and 1 in 10 Republicans (11%).

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Republicans under age 45 are more than five times as likely as older Republicans to think the shooting was staged (22% vs. 4%). 

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson, stresses that the assassination attempt was undoubtedly real, warning that a growing denial of facts threatens the political process.

"When partisan polarization and political cynicism prevent us from agreeing on a common and obvious set of facts, it undercuts our ability to diagnose problems and develop policy solutions," Shaw says. "This is especially troubling given that younger voters are among the most cynical about our politics and institutions."

"These findings show what happens when public skepticism becomes embedded in the political culture," adds Anderson. "When people are told that every major event could be manipulated or manufactured, disbelief itself becomes the default reaction."

Voters under age 35 are nearly twice as likely as those ages 65 and over to think the shooting was fabricated (38% vs. 20%), as seniors are among those most likely to say it was real (65%).

There’s also a gender gap, as more women (35%) than men (25%) consider it staged. 

More than 6 in 10 White evangelical Christians believe the shooting happened, while 2 in 10 don’t.

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Conducted May 15-18, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,002 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (109) and cellphones (635) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (258). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.