Reporter’s Notebook: Democrats say they can still flip the House despite GOP redistricting gains in the South

Redistricting and race.

Democrats are beside themselves, watching what Republicans are doing on redistricting — especially in the South.

"What we're seeing is an attack on legitimate opportunities for Black candidates to have representation here in Congress," said Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Ala., who is on track to lose his district in Mobile.

Democrats say they know what Republicans are up to.

"They've also been trying to eliminate teaching America's history, right? Whitewashing America's history," said former Vice President Kamala Harris.

BLOCKBUSTER SUPREME COURT VOTING RIGHTS RULING IGNITES REDISTRICTING WAR ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES

States like Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama – and now Georgia and South Carolina are redrawing district maps for House Members. That’s after Missouri revamped its maps. Many of these new districts are squeezing out members of the Congressional Black Caucus.

In essence, Democrats see this as a "Southern Strategy" by the GOP, stamping out Black lawmakers.

"It’s about race," said Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., the  top Democrat on the Homeland Security Committee.

"I feel like I’ve been assaulted," said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo.

"We've seen this before," said Rep. Greg Meeks, D-N.Y., the top Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee.

"We're looking at losing possibly 19 members of the Congressional Black Caucus because of this frankly racist redistricting efforts targeted towards disenfranchising Black voters across the country," said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. 

Republicans say turnabout is fair play. They note that you can’t find a Republican anywhere in the six states which comprise New England.

"It’s out of whack. It's out of balance. And I think Republicans are finally waking up given the legal landscape changes and going, ‘Well, maybe we need to reconsider the way that we do things in our state,’" said Rep. Russell Fry, R-S.C.

South Carolina initially balked at drawing new maps. But the Palmetto State reversed course after President Trump demanded the state "get it done." He instructed South Carolina Republicans to be "bold and courageous."

Don’t forget that GOP Indiana state senators faced the President’s ire after the Hoosier State rejected his entreaties for redistricting there. The Trump White House waged an internecine campaign. President Trump’s allies toppled five Republican state senators who crossed him.

So South Carolina snapped to attention.

"The people of South Carolina are very supportive of President Donald Trump," said Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC). "They understand perfectly that we're in a conflict. A nationwide conflict."

New maps in South Carolina could mean no Democrats in the state delegation. That could eliminate the district of former House Majority Whip and Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C. Clyburn first came to Capitol Hill in 1993. He’s widely regarded for salvaging the 2020 campaign of former President Biden, helping him ride to victory in the South Carolina primary.

Still, Democrats believe they can seize the House, even as Republicans try to squeeze the map through redistricting.

"There are 45 districts in play that we've identified as opportunities to flip in this upcoming midterm election," said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.

Democrats believe they’ll run up the scoreboard in California. Pluck off a couple of Republicans in Arizona and Colorado. Maybe one in Utah. Take a few in Texas after redistricting there. Make a play for a seat in Montana. Win a seat or two in Pennsylvania. Claim two seats in Virginia – despite the Virginia Supreme Court ruling there. Pick up a couple of seats in New Jersey and New York.

Remember that Democrats just need a net gain of three seats to secure the House majority.

However, that "blue wall" might not hold in all of New England this time around.

Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, is retiring. He’s one of the most moderate Democrats in Congress. Vice President JD Vance just traveled to Bangor, Maine, recently to talk about fraud – and boost the campaign prospects of former Republican Maine Gov. Paul LePage.

LePage is running to succeed Golden. Republicans are bullish about their chances in northern Maine.

REPUBLICAN 'WAKE-UP CALL': SPECIAL ELECTION SHOCKER HIGHLIGHTS GOP TURNOUT AND MIDTERM RISKS

LePage will be 78 if he wins – the oldest freshman in congressional history. However, this is ironic. Maine's Democrat Gov. Janet Mills was running for Senate – but bowed out. Some Democrats believed she was too old. Mills would have been 79 as a freshman senator had she stayed in the race and prevailed.

But back to what faces the Democrats.

Democrats are trying to find their footing after the double whammy of the Supreme Court Voting Rights Act decision and the Virginia Supreme Court rejecting the statewide redistricting referendum. House Democrats huddled to discuss their battle plan.

"I'm more energized now than ever to make sure that we're in the field, that we're doing the work and whatever it has to take to win," said Meeks.

"We’re going to win," said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). That’s the House Democrats’ political arm.

"Democrats are prepared to use whatever levers we can to influence the outcome of the election," said Thompson.

Some of this sounded a little like political pablum with no real direction.

Yours truly pressed Thompson.

"Respectfully, this all sounds kind of vague. You guys have a five-alarm fire now after those two court decisions, and I'm not hearing any specifics," I countered Thompson.

"Well, you just stay tuned," countered Thompson.

"How does that convince the voters, though?" your trusty reporter queried.

"Look," said Thompson. "We are two weeks away from a crazy Supreme Court decision. You can't expect anyone to come with a strategy right now."

Two weeks after the decision which could hamstring Democrats’ chances to win the House? Never mind that the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case last year and oral arguments were in the fall. Democrats understood the gravity of this case and how it could chew into any plan to flip the House in the midterms.

Democrats are banking on Republicans overplaying their redistricting hands. But how Democrats energize their base wasn’t immediately clear after their conclave on the subject.

"The American public gets to make this decision. That's a great thing about American democracy. And we're working," said Rep. Joe Morelle, D-N.Y., the top Democrat on the House Administration Committee.

REDISTRICTING BATTLES BREWING ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS PARTIES COMPETE FOR POWER AHEAD OF 2026 MIDTERMS

But "working" doesn’t necessarily garner votes. It would be "news" if the Democrats weren’t working on the issue.

"That doesn’t sound like much of a concrete plan, though, Mr. Morelle?" yours truly interjected.

"I am not going to share my concrete plan with you," replied Morelle.

A group of northern Democrats – ranging from Ocasio-Cortez to Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., headed to Montgomery, Ala., over the weekend to make the case against the GOP’s redistricting ploys.

"We shall overcome," intoned Booker. 

Rep. Jonathan Jackson, D-Ill., son of the late Rev. Jesse Jackson, is now imploring Black student-athletes who attend school in the South to enter the transfer portal and play instead in the North.

Yet another way to pit the Big Ten against the SEC.

Rallying in the South may rile up Black voters. But it won’t help Democrats take back the House if all they’re doing is driving up voter participation in districts Democrats can’t win – thanks to the redrawing of the boundaries.

However, if Democrats do succeed in getting people to the polls – yet the playing field is tilted against them – we could be in for an econometric anomaly this fall.

It was a presidential election year in 2012. Democrats failed to win control of the House after losing it in a 2010 midterm shellacking. With President Obama on the ballot, Democrats secured nearly 1.6 million more votes than Republicans in House races nationwide in 2012. Yet Democrats failed to win the House.

Republicans won control of the House from the Democrats in 1994 for the first time in four decades. But with President Clinton handily riding to a second term in 1996, Democrats still struggled to win back the House. Democrats outpaced Republicans in the popular vote for the House that year by nearly 300,000 votes nationally. 

Democrats have redrawn lines in their favor in California. But Republicans appear to have superseded that with their lines in the South. It’s a distinct possibility that Democrats could command more popular votes for House seats nationwide – and not get back the House. This statistical phenomenon is even more glaring that the party with the most popular votes fails to control the House in a midterm – not a presidential election year when a sitting executive is returned to the White House in the cases of Presidents Clinton and Obama.

That’s why some Democrats believe they should have been even more aggressive with redistricting.

Maryland is a case study. The Democratically-controlled state took a pass.

"I believe that we had an opportunity to do that. I supported it, and I still believe that would have been the right course for us to take," said Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, D-Md. "These are extraordinary times And I think we should take extraordinary measures to protect the opportunity to have those votes counted."

Maryland would have made the entire state blue, drawing out of his seat Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., chair of the House Freedom Caucus.

Democrats see the GOP tactics as an existential political threat. President Trump commanded about one-fifth of Black male voters in 2024. And that’s why Democrats are framing this fight around civil rights.

It’s a race about redistricting. But Democrats also see this as a race – about race.