Reds vs. Phillies betting preview: Why Cincinnati is the play despite their 4-12 skid over 16 games
It was a good sports weekend with some entertaining baseball games, Game 7 in the NBA Playoffs, a wild hockey game that saw 11 goals and the PGA Championship. I still find golf a bit hard to watch if I don't have a bet on something active, but seeing the leader board bunched up as much as it was made this kind of neat. This week we have the start of a ton of new baseball series, the Conference Finals for the NBA and NHL and another golf tournament looming. Tonight, we take on the Reds and Phillies game, looking to steal a unit for ourselves.
The Cincinnati Reds were one of the best teams in baseball over the first few weeks of the season, but they've cooled off since then. As of today, they are still above .500, but they are barely hanging on with just one game above the mark at 24-23. All five teams in the National League Central are above .500, and they are just five games back of the division-leading Cubs. They've gone 4-12 over their last 16 games, and have only won one of their past five series.
Looking at their team statistics, they probably should be thankful that they are this successful. Their team is hitting just .226 as a club, and their pitching staff has a 4.81 ERA. Elly De La Cruz, as usual, is the main bright spot for the club with a .302 batting average, 11 homers and 31 RBIs. Tonight, Nick Lodolo is taking the mound, and he has had a couple of rough outings to start his season. He is normally a pretty solid pitcher, but he has allowed nine earned runs in 9.1 innings. Phillies hitters are solid against him with a .287 batting average over 80 at-bats.
The Philadelphia Phillies went from being one of the most frustrating teams in baseball to being one of the hottest teams in the sport. They still have a big hole to dig out of, but after firing their manager, the team is now 15-4 under Don Mattingly. They were 9-19 previously and now are above .500. They just swept the Pirates, but they are still eight games behind the Braves in their division.
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Their pitching still leaves a bit to be desired with a 4.22 ERA, and their hitting isn't exactly meeting their typical standards. Still, they have to be encouraged by this current stretch. Kyle Schwarber looks like he will make a run at MVP this season, or perhaps historic numbers. He has 20 homers through 47 games. At this pace, he would hit the most homers of anyone in one season.
On the mound tonight is Andrew Painter, who has a 1-4 record, a 6.21 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. Painter has been a bit of a mixed bag lately, allowing four or more earned runs in three of the past seven starts. The Phillies have lost the past six Painter starts. In the other four, he has allowed three or fewer earned runs.
This game features two teams on very opposite paths. The Reds are slumping, and the Phillies are surging, but I think the more reliable starter belongs to Cincinnati. I like the Reds to win this game at plus money with Lodolo, but he has looked rough. The Phillies have hit him well, too. Still, Painter is not a guy I'm ready to back. I think Lodolo will eventually settle in. Give me the Reds at -105 through five innings.
I am also taking a shot at J.T. Realmuto under 0.5 hits today at +188. He has been very bad against Lodolo, going just 2-for-13 with seven strikeouts. Alec Bohm is worth a 2+ total bases play at +133. He is 6-for-15 with three extra-base hits.
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