2026 Preakness Stakes: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Expert Picks, Best Bets

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

The Preakness moves to Laurel for the year and with the new location comes 12 new runners to the Triple Crown trail, as only Ocelli and Incredibolt are running in the second jewel of the Triple Crown after starting in the Kentucky Derby.

It’s a wide open race with a 9-2 favorite on the Morning Line (Iron Honor) and a trio of 5-1 shots (Incredibolt, Chip Honcho and Taj Mahal). If you like one of those four horses, you’ll still get paid if they win. 

However, it does have the makings of the tote board lighting up, just as it did in the Derby.

Here are some thoughts on the race and how I’ll bet it, in an effort to get whole after a poor Derby!

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

Notes, Stats and Trends

Taj Mahal (1) certainly seems like the "now" horse for a lot of people. He’s 3-for-3, with each of his wins coming at Laurel, the last two in front-running fashion. Brittany Russell will try to make it consecutive Triple Crown races won by female trainers. I certainly don’t know what was behind Taj Mahal in any of those races, but this is a subpar Preakness in overall talent level. Taj Mahal will likely have company on the lead, and that probably isn’t a great thing, being Taj Mahal will be breaking from the rail. I’d expect a bunch of (3) Crupper, (4) Robusta, (6) Chip Honcho, (10) Napoleon Solo, (11) Corona de Oro and (14) Pretty Boy Miah to contest the early going. I expect Taj Mahal to go as a tepid favorite, and I will be standing against in the win pool.

Iron Honor (9) is a horse that interests me quite a bit. Chad Brown’s Preakness horses that are bet to 6-1 or better have never been worse than fourth (a win, a second and two fourths). The Gotham winner was a beaten favorite in the Wood Memorial from an impossible far outside post. I love the blinkers off angle here, which should keep him off what I think will be a hotly contested pace. I’ll be keying him in all spots in the tri and super. Each of the last six Preakness favorites have finished in the money (one win, three seconds and two thirds).

I’m tossing the (2) Ocelli. His third-place run in the Derby has "closer that caught a clean run in the stretch behind a collapsing pace" written all over it. The shorter stretch here won’t help him — or any other deep closer — get up for the win, despite what I think will be a quick pace. I think he’ll be an underlay here, and I just can't get behind a horse that was 28-1 and 71-1 in his two graded stakes races and will now be 5-1 or 6-1.

Steve Asmussen, who has won this race twice, sends (6) Chip Honcho to post. Since those two wins, just two of Asmussen’s 13 Preakness starters have managed to run even second, so he hasn’t had a great run here lately — see Clever Again last year, who cut out fast fractions and finished last. Honcho feels like one of those horses that needs everything to go his way to have a chance to win, and I’m not sure if that's gonna be the case here. Those who like him can certainly point to him finishing five lengths clear of Derby winner Golden Tempo in the Risen Star. Feels like an underneath type to me.

(10) Napoleon Solo is trainer Chad Summers’ first Triple Crown starter and is another one that will certainly be on the lead. His two races as a three-year-old haven’t matched what he did as a two-year-old in New York at shorter distances, so I am skeptical.

I thought (12) Incredibolt would run well in the Derby, and he did run decently. He’ll be chasing a quick pace and if he can work a trip where he’s not too far back, he’s got a chance here. I’ll be using.

Now for the two long shots that have my interest. (5) Talkin has been pointed to this race by Danny Gargan since the Blue Grass. People might see beaten 12-plus lengths in that race, but keep in mind Further Ado freaked that day and won by 11. He ran a career-best Beyer that day, too, and should be able to better that in his third start of the year. He clearly needed the race — speed and fade — at Tampa when beaten by The Puma and Further Ado and was 4-1 vs Renegade in the Remsen when he drew all the way outside. He was the same price as Napoleon Solo in the Champagne when Solo caught a flier and had it his own way. Irad Ortiz Jr. hops on a horse that figures to have a staking trip from a tidy post and while I do not expect to get 20-1 here, I think the price will still be very attractive. Gargan won the 2024 Belmont with 18-1 shot Dornoch and I think he’s a very live long shot on Saturday.

If you’re willing to take a leap of faith and really take a stab, (11) Corona de Oro isn’t the worst 30-1 shot there’s been. He’s hit the board in all three races as a three-year-old and has certainly gotten better since the two starts as a two-year-old. The question is, can he sit and not get involved in the speed duel? He was a beaten favorite at the Fair Grounds in a six-furlong race to start the year and came from off the pace there, then romped as a short price in a short field to break maiden, prior to a third-place finish in the Lexington at 7-2 after setting the pace. In his second start against winners, he should move forward. I’m hoping John Velazquez doesn’t send, and he just slides over into the hole Napoleon Solo will vacate when that one goes to the lead. Then, in theory, he can follow Iron Honor all the way around. Dallas Stewart has had four horses run second in a Triple Crown race and all four were at least 29-1. In what is such a "meh" field, I think this horse has a chance — if my guess on how he could run the race is correct.

Good luck everyone! Looking forward to Saratoga for the Belmont Stakes on FOX on June 6.

How I'm Betting The Preakness Stakes

$4 Exacta Box ($48)
1-5-9-11

$2 Exacta Key Box ($28)
5-11/1-5-9-11-12

$10 Win-Place ($40)
5-11

$1 Trifecta ($48)
9-12/5-11/all

$1 Trifecta ($72)
5-11/1-9-12/all