A PC trade-in rush is on the way—and it’s coming at the worst possible time

Just as they did with televisions, many people used the pandemic as an excuse to upgrade their PC or laptop.

It was a move that made sense at the time. Telecommuting became essential, and not all devices could adequately handle the demands of Zoom, Teams, and other work software. At the same time, digital communication was often the only way to stay in touch with friends and family.

Smartphones handled some of that heavy lifting, of course, but the PC industry still saw shipments spike 14.5% from 1999 to 2000.

Now, much like the TV market, many PC owners are reaching the point where a new device is becoming necessary. But unlike that living room fixture, PC shoppers are entering a hostile market defined by higher prices and fewer meaningful performance gains.

IT research firm Gartner notes that many people replace their business devices, typically laptops, every three to five years. International Data Corp. puts that timeline closer to five to eight years when businesses actively manage upgrades and repairs. Personal-use computer owners tend to follow a similar replacement cycle.

That means a refresh wave is looming for pandemic-era buyers, just as component prices are soaring amid AI-driven demand for hardware. RAM prices have jumped anywhere from 150% to more than 200% over the past year, depending on the type, according to PCPartPicker.com. Storage prices, including the cost of hard drives, have followed similar trends.

Meanwhile, video card prices have remained elevated for years, as GPUs, the chips that power graphics cards, have become a core component of AI systems. For gamers, that has been especially frustrating.

PC gaming is rapidly becoming a more important part of the video game ecosystem, threatening to displace consoles, according to some industry leaders at the recent Iicon conference hosted by the Entertainment Software Association. Analysts, however, say Nvidia is not expected to release a new generation of its GeForce GPUs in 2026. If that happens, it will mark the first time in three decades the company has skipped an annual release cycle. And finding a top-of-the-line RTX 50-series card remains difficult for many enthusiasts, with some retailers charging double the suggested retail price.

A vanishing entry level

As frustrating as the price hikes already are for consumers in need of an upgrade, analysts do not expect the situation to improve anytime soon. A separate Gartner projection predicts that PC prices will rise 17% this year compared with 2025. Worse still for consumers simply looking for a functional home computer, the era of low-cost machines may be nearing its end.

“The sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028,” says Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner. “In addition, rising AI PC prices will delay the projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028.”

PC vendors, Gartner says, are likely to accept lower sales volumes to protect profit margins rather than aggressively pursue price-sensitive customers, noting that the first half of this year represents a “critical window.” By the end of the year, the firm predicted, combined prices for DRAM and solid-state drives could rise 130%.

The surge in component costs, combined with uncertainty over how long those increases will last, could reshape the U.S. computer refresh cycle in one of two ways.

Some analysts believe laptop users may simply hold onto devices as long as they remain “good enough” to run everyday programs and apps. Desktop users with some technical know-how can also upgrade individual components at a lower cost, or turn to services like Geek Squad if opening up a PC feels too intimidating.

Others argue that buyers may rush to upgrade now before prices climb even higher. Distributors appear to be betting on that scenario. Worldwide PC shipments rose 4% in the first quarter of 2026, to 62.8 million units. That increase is notable because 2025 figures were already inflated as companies front-loaded inventory ahead of the Trump tariffs.

“The 4% year-over-year PC shipment growth in the first quarter of 2026 was artificially inflated,” says Rishi Padhi, research principal at Gartner, in a statement. “It was not due to genuine demand, but instead because of vendors’ and channel distributors’ increase of inventory levels ahead of expected price hikes in the second quarter.”