U.S. Hopeful of Deal to End War as Iran Keeps World on Edge

American officials have reportedly suggested that the U.S. is the closest it has been to reaching a deal with Iran to end the war, even as Iranian officials have publicly offered a more pessimistic view.

Iran is expected to respond within the next 48 hours to a possible framework deal to end the U.S.-Israel war in the Middle East, U.S. officials told Axios on Wednesday. Iranian officials are reviewing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would declare an end to the two-month-long war launched by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28. The MOU, which is being discussed via both direct and indirect negotiations led by Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, would also create a framework for more detailed negotiations over a 30-day period, officials said.

Under the proposed framework set by the MOU, Iran would lift restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz that have been in place since early March, choking global energy flows and shipping. At the same time, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports that was imposed on April 13 and has blocked off a critical source of revenue for the country. The key terms of the framework also reportedly include a moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment, lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran, and the release of billions of dollars in Iranian funds that are frozen around the world.

An agreement has not yet been reached, and it is possible that the terms laid out in the framework could still change during negotiations toward a final agreement. CNN reported that the Iranian response could come Thursday, citing sources familiar with the negotiations, while Pakistani sources familiar with the talks also described to Reuters positive progress towards a deal.

American officials have signaled that the two sides are the closest they have been to a deal since the war started.

“We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the President paused “Project Freedom,” the freshly-launched mission to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, pointing to “great progress” in U.S. talks with Iran.

In a virtual campaign event with party supporters later on Wednesday, Trump said of the war, “It’ll be over quickly.”

Strait of Hormuz tensions persist

The ongoing U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which the U.S. has demanded Iran open to all transit not just ships that obtain its permission, has ratcheted up frictions between the two parties. Tensions escalated during the U.S.’s short-lived “Project Freedom,” which Iran had warned would be considered a violation of the cease-fire that began on April 8. Earlier this week, the U.S. and Iran traded attacks in the waterway and the U.A.E. reported strikes on its territory, which Iran denied responsibility for.

On Wednesday, U.S. forces struck an Iranian-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz allegedly violating the U.S. naval blockade, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said. CENTCOM said that the tanker, identified as the M/T Hasna, was transiting international waters to an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman and failed to comply with “multiple warnings” that the vessel was in violation of the blockade. U.S. forces fired several rounds from the cannon gun of a U.S. Navy vessel, disabling the Iranian tanker, according to CENTCOM.

China, a longtime friend of Iran, also called for the reopening of the Strait in a Wednesday meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi. Trump is set to visit Beijing to meet with his counterpart Xi Jinping next week.

Nuclear program at center of negotiations

Iran’s nuclear program, which the U.S. and Israel cited as justification for launching the war, has long been a sticking point in negotiations. The U.S. and Iran were in the middle of restarted nuclear negotiations when the U.S. and Israel launched their Feb. 28 attacks, accusing Iranian negotiators of obstinacy. Iran has previously said that U.S. attacks eroded any trust that might lead to a nuclear agreement.

As part of the MOU, Iran would have to commit to never seeking a nuclear weapon, which the country has already maintained it has never sought to develop.

The details of any guarantees, including a possible moratorium on Iran’s uranium enrichment, are still being worked out, Axios reported. Officials suggested the moratorium would last for at least 12 years, which would be a compromise between Iran’s earlier proposal of a five-year moratorium and the U.S. proposal of 20 years. After the moratorium, Iran can enrich its uranium at a low level of 3.67%, Axios reported.

Trump officials reportedly also want to include a provision that any violation on enrichment would extend the moratorium.

Other possible clauses reportedly include Iranian commitments to not operating underground nuclear facilities and to enhanced inspections, including snap inspections by the United Nations. The U.S. has also requested that Iran remove its highly enriched uranium, possibly handing it over to the U.S.

After the U.S. joined Israel in bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities last June, observers have said it’s difficult to determine how much of Iran’s nuclear capacity was destroyed and how much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile survived.

Outlook of a deal

American officials reportedly believe that Iranian leaders are of two minds, making it difficult to reach an agreement. The Trump Administration previously said that the first round of talks collapsed because the Iranian team had to return to Tehran to get approval to sign a deal.

“We don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday. “But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile.”

The Trump Administration appears keen to avoid dragging an unpopular war out even longer. Rubio announced the end of the offensive phase of the U.S. military operation against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury,” and that the U.S. was shifting to a “defensive” posture.

Even so, Trump cautioned that while the war has “a very good chance of ending, … if it doesn’t end, we have to go back to bombing the hell out of them.” On multiple occasions over the course of the war, Trump has suggested Iran was ready to make a deal while he also has threatened to wipe out “a whole civilization.” So far, the U.S. and Iran have not agreed to a more lasting peace, leaving the two parties in a stalemate in which military attacks might resume at any time.

Public statements from Iranian officials offer a less confident view that a deal will be reached soon. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Tehran is still reviewing the U.S. proposal but “strongly rejected” some of its terms, according to Iranian state media. Israel’s bombing of Beirut on Wednesday—its first attack on Lebanon’s capital since a cease-fire went into effect on April 17—could also throw a wrench in U.S.-Iran talks. Iran initially said that Israel must cease its attacks on Lebanon, which have killed thousands, as part of the U.S.-Iran cease-fire, but the U.S. and Israel disagreed and later negotiated a parallel cease-fire signed by the Israeli and Lebanese governments and acknowledged by Hezbollah.

Ebrahim Rezaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament’s Foreign Policy and National Security Committee, called the Axios report “more of an American wish list than a reality.”

“The Americans will not obtain through a failed war anything that they failed to gain in face-to-face negotiations,” Rezaei posted on X. “Iran has its finger on the trigger and is ready.”

Speaker of Iran’s Parliament Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf posted, “Operation Trust Me Bro failed.” Apparently referencing the Axios report, he added, “Now back to routine with Operation Fauxios.”