LARRY KUDLOW: Without Regime Change, Can We Ever Really Trust Iran?

So it appears that America and Iran are moving closer on a proposal to restart peace talks. Yet it seems so indirect, like a carom shot in pool.

Who can be sure? As I read it, from the media reports, principally Axios and the Wall Street Journal, America and Iran are working on a one-page framework to restart negotiations.

So there has to be agreement on the one-pager, and if there is agreement, then actual negotiations might begin next week at Islamabad or Geneva, Switzerland.

So if I get this even remotely right, and I don’t have much direct information, we are negotiating in order to begin negotiating. Well, okay.

And if the negotiations don’t work out you can be sure that all bombing hell will descend on Iran — much worse than anything they’ve seen before.

As the president said on this whole thing this afternoon: "We’re in good shape. And, now we’re doing well. Now we have to get what we have to get. If we don’t do that, we’ll have to go a big step further. But with that being said, they want to make a deal. We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal."

Meanwhile, Project Freedom has been paused which frankly disappoints me because I had hoped our great United States Navy would have been able to ramp up 50 to 100 or more commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

And if there’s a 30-day period of negotiations, the United States Navy’s blockade would gradually be lifted. This too is disappointing.

At this point, though, the blockade is very much still in place. So again, we’ll wait to see more information. Another piece to this Iran story is President Trump’s trip to Communist China. Is this part of the negotiation process?

My hope has always been that America would exert complete control over the whole Arabian Gulf, including the Hormuz Strait for some considerable period of time.

Now that may still happen. And of course our military forces are not going any place. And when Mr. Trump says it’s very possible a deal can be reached, then I’ll go along with that. I’ve supported him the whole time. I know he’s not going to make a bad deal.

I know he’ll insist on the key red lines of stopping Iranian enrichment of uranium. And transferring enriched uranium from Iran to the United States. And I believe the president would never allow Iran to have control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

What’s more, I’m certain he will insist that Iran stop its state-sponsored terrorism, and that war against Israel and for that matter its war against the United States.

Yet there is a fear among our Gulf allies, that there’s too much uncertainty and the American team.

And so it would seem, regrettably, that there will be no major regime change in Iran. Which of course once again raises the issue of verification and trust.

Iran has never allowed either. And right now that may be the toughest part of this whole story.