Stifel says an under-the-radar inflation signal is flashing for the first time in 65 years

• There's a macro shift that's taken place for the first time in 65 years, Stifel said.
• Tech inflation is rising faster than wages for the first time in decades.
• "We believe the economy is shifting into an Inflationary Boom," the Stifel analysts wrote.

An inflation warning that hasn't been seen in over half a century is making its latest appearance.

Strategists at Stifel see an under-the-radar sign that US inflation pointing higher, which is the fact that tech prices are accelerating faster than the wage growth. It's a signal the economy hasn't seen in about 65 years.

The trend is one sign the US is headed for another burst of inflation, the firm wrote in a client note last week.

"Overall, the US economy appears to be rotating into a 'Run Hot' regime,' the strategists said. "While this environment is typically bullish for nominal and real GDP, the current mix favors investment over consumption, pressuring the consumer alongside an ongoing energy shock."

Personal consumption expenditures — the Fed's preferred measure of inflation — for information processing equipment grew at a 8% yearly pace in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

That compares to the 3.5% yearly pace at which average hourly wages grew in the private sector in March, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The acceleration in tech prices has largely been due to the AI boom, Stifel said, referring to how growing demand for AI hardware has helped raise memory prices and GPU prices.

In a note to clients this week, analysts at Goldman Sachs also flagged the inflationary potential of AI, pointing to the spike in hardware prices, software firms upcharging for AI tools, and the surge in power demand from data centers, which is feeding energy inflation.

"We believe the economy is shifting into an Inflationary Boom."

Stifel said it sees "little near-term relief" to the price increases, given continued enthusiasm for AI despite physical constraints. It also said tech-led inflation has implications for stocks, and signs of excess in the market can be seen in the "near parabolic move within the AI hardware trade."

Concerns about inflation have reached fever pitch in recent weeks as oil prices have climbed, with a peace deal with Iran still nowhere in sight. Fears that higher oil prices could stoke inflation in other areas of the economy have been top of mind. The pace of inflation accelerated to a 3.3% yearly pace in March, its highest level in two years.