Why Colin Cowherd Believes Cowboys Will Fail to Live Up to Expectations in 2026

It’s been two whole seasons since the Dallas Cowboys have had a winning record and earned a playoff spot. But with a lauded draft class and some notable offseason moves, will the Cowboys get their footing back and make it to the postseason again? Don't count on that happening, or at least that's what Colin Cowherd thinks. Cowherd said on Tuesday’s edition of "The Herd" that he took notice of Dallas’ schedule difficulty, and does not believe it will match what oddsmakers have as its projected win total for the 2026 season. "Over/Under is 8.5 wins. I will take the under," Cowherd said. "I think they’re a 7-10 or an 8-9 team. I like their draft, I like their personnel, but last year they played the third-easiest schedule and won seven games, and their eight games against teams with winning records, they went 1-7." While the full schedule for the 2026 NFL season hasn't been announced, the Cowboys know who they'll face this fall. They have eight games against teams that made the playoffs in 2025, including the Philadelphia Eagles (twice), Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. One of their designated home games will be played in Brazil, taking on a Baltimore Ravens team that had a down year in 2025. They also have to travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers, and face the Texans in Houston. And that's all before mentioning their other four matchups against divisional foes, as the New York Giants and Washington Commanders appear to be in a spot to contend for the playoffs in 2026. The Cowboys finished their 2025 campaign 7-9-1 in the first year of the Brian Schottenheimer era, showing some improvement from Mike McCarthy's final season as head coach in 2024. Schottenheimer was elevated to head coach in the 2025 offseason after two seasons as the team's offensive coordinator, helping quarterback Dak Prescott put up another impressive statistical season (4,552 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 10 interceptions). Dallas recently compiled an impressive draft class that included a pair of first-round picks (Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, UCF edge rusher Malachi Lawrence) along with some potential mid-round standouts (Michigan edge rusher Jaishawn Barham, Penn State offensive tackle Drew Shelton, Florida cornerback Devon Moore, Alabama edge rusher LT Overton). In a year when defensive depth was needed, Dallas took advantage from the jump, with its move to trade up and draft Downs being widely praised. FOX Sports' Rob Rang’s draft grade analysis for Dallas was positive, with a long-term vision that their new defensive look has potential. "With two first-round picks to play with following last year’s Micah Parsons trade, it was clear the Cowboys had the potential to be active in this draft, but they were even more flexible than expected, aggressively trading up to nab star safety Caleb Downs at No. 11 and recouping picks by dropping back and still getting an explosive edge rusher in Malachi Lawrence at No. 23." Rang wrote. After trading Micah Parsons to the Packers last August in exchange for two first-round picks, the Cowboys' will need their draft class, and the impact of key offseason moves – like franchise-tagging wide receiver George Pickens – to help surpass the projected win total of 8.5 wins. Cowherd recognized that because of those moves, Dallas has strong roster depth. However, he doesn't think the Cowboys have the top-end talent to make the playoffs in 2026. "I think their roster is better than we give it credit for, but their schedule is brutal, and they have not shown an ability with Brian Schottenheimer to win against better quarterbacks consistently. If you look at the Cowboys, and you’re like, ‘I like what they’re doing,’ you have to check schedules."