Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has proposed a low-end figure of $25 billion for the conflict—but the larger cost is in military readiness for other conflicts rather than dollars alone.

The official price tag for Operation Epic Fury, according to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in recent testimony to Congress, is $25 billion. But independent analysts have put the true cost at closer to $50 billion. All this, on an operation that spanned only a few weeks!

The success of Operation Epic Fury is debatable. The operation seems to have achieved a tactical success; Iran’s longtime ruler is dead, its military has been significantly degraded, and its allied proxy groups from Lebanon to Iraq are on the back foot. Yet the extreme cost of the operation raises serious questions about whether the expenditure in money and munitions was economically or strategically justified.

How the Pentagon Lost (At Least) $25 Billion in 60 Days

Munitions account for the largest share of US expenses during the operation, with roughly $15–20 billion spent. The US deployed around 2,000 precision munitions in the first 100 hours of the campaign—most prominently including BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles against land targets inside Iran, with an estimated price tag of $3–4 million each. Other missiles used to defend US forces from incoming Iranian projectiles included SM-3 aerial interceptors ($25 million each), THAAD interceptors ($15 million each), and MIM-104 Patriot missiles ($3–4 million each). Not only are these systems extremely expensive, but large portions of the inventories were depleted, which will cost time and money to replenish. For Epic Fury, the US relied heavily on its most expensive weapons, burning through assets that were intended for use in more important conflicts.

Operations and maintenance, carrier strike groups, fuel and logistics, etc, cost tens of millions per day. Dozens of aircraft—including $300 million worth of F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets, $720 million worth of MQ-9 Reaper drones, and a rare and irreplaceable E-3 Sentry worth hundreds of millions of dollars—were shot down or destroyed on the ground. The Air Force has expressed a desire to replace the aircraft lost, meaning these losses will be reflected in the defense budgets in years to come.

In spite of the best efforts of American air defenses, multiple US military bases in or near the Persian Gulf were hit by Iranian strikes, upping the costs of the operation further, though the Pentagon has not released cost estimates of the damage. Thirteen US servicemembers—the most important part of the force, and the only one that must be preserved at any cost—have lost their lives, seven in combat and six in a KC-135 Stratotanker plane crash in Iraq.

The burn rate of Epic Fury is notable. While the war has been relatively short, the intensity has been high and sustained, costing about $1.8 billion per day. By comparison, the Iraq War and Afghanistan cost less than half a billion per day, although these dragged on for far longer.

Was the Iran War Really Worth It?

The expense of $25 billion, or $50 billion by other estimates, did achieve the general degradation of the Iranian military and confirmed the US maintains high-end strike capability. But the billions spent in munitions, equipment, and readiness raises questions about whether the expenditure was worthwhile. The opportunity cost of the expense is real; the US burned through its high-end arsenal, weakening focus on the Indo-Pacific in a way that directly benefits China. The tactical success of Epic Fury may indeed have come at the expense of strategic positioning, a bad investment for the taxpayers who funded the expedition. 

US stockpiles were mixed for peer conflict, but the intensive burn rate of Epic Fury has depleted those inventories, which will be slowly replaced. The result is a risk readiness window that extends between now and the next five years. On paper, that seems like a bad investment: $50 billion for reduced deterrence against a peer in a critical region. And the price tag will continue to grow for years; the Pentagon has already requested $200 billion in supplemental funding to replenish stockpiles and repair infrastructure, making it difficult to put a firm end date on the costs involved.

In essence, Epic Fury appears to have been a tactical success, resulting in the degradation of Iran’s nuclear program, missile infrastructure, navy, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). But the strategic value of the operation remains in question. And given the immense price tag of the operation, the operation’s strategic value has not obviously been justified. 

About the Author: Harrison Kass

Harrison Kass is a writer and attorney focused on national security, technology, and political culture. His work has appeared in City Journal, The Hill, Quillette, The Spectator, and The Cipher Brief. He holds a JD from the University of Oregon and a master’s in Global & Joint Program Studies from NYU. More at harrisonkass.com.

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