The 9 Democratic Primaries to Watch Closely This Year

As a New Republic reader, you’re well aware that 2026 is a midterm year. But unless you’re a political junkie—or a voter in a handful of states—you might be unaware that primary season has already begun. Five states have held primaries already, while the rest are taking place this spring and summer. On the Democratic side, there’s no shortage of ideological disputes, age gaps, and longtime feuds as candidates jostle for the right to take on Republicans in the fall elections—and, they hope, win back control of Congress. Here are the party’s nine most intriguing contests in the coming months. (We had 10! But then Maine Governor Janet Mills bailed on her bid for Senate.)

May 5: Indiana’s 5th Congressional District

There’s a crowded field in the race to unseat Republican incumbent Victoria Spartz, and early-voting figures suggest that Democrats in the district—which has an eight-point GOP lean, according to the Cook Political Report—are energized.

Though no polling has been conducted on the race, J.D. Ford appears most likely to win the crowded primary. The first and only gay member of the Indiana Senate, Ford has centered his campaign on affordability and his local name recognition. And he is committed to the fight, having given up his seat to challenge Spartz. “People are going to tell me that the 5th District is unwinnable,” Ford told the Indiana Capitol Chronicle. “I would just tell them, ‘Watch me.’”

Jackson Franklin, along with his two triplet brothers, serves as a combat medic in the Indiana National Guard. Franklin was deployed to Kosovo in 2023, and says he was inspired to run for office after seeing his fellow veterans refuse medical care because they couldn’t afford it. At 26, he’d be the youngest member of Congress if elected (the current title holder, Maxwell Frost, is 29). If Franklin’s presidential-sounding name doesn’t sell Hoosiers on his political panache, his policies might: A Bernie Sanders fan since age 15, he’s rejected all corporate money and pledged to fight against Washington lobbyists.

Another legitimate contender is Dylan McKenna, who works in technology sales and has already raised a surprisingly large amount of cash. McKenna was motivated to run after Renee Good’s killing in Minneapolis, and describes himself as “a boring dad trying to do the right thing.” There’s also chiropractor Steve Avit, who posts low-budget videos on Facebook about helping working families, and Phil Goss, who operates his family farm while somehow also managing a pub in Gdansk, Poland.

May 12: Nebraska Senate

In this Democratic primary, a potential Republican plant is facing an actual Democrat who has no intention of holding office.

Let’s back up. Two years ago, a veteran and mechanic who had never run for office came within seven percentage points of unseating GOP Senator Deb Fischer. Dan Osborn was a progressive, populist, pro-gun challenger—but not a Democrat. He ran instead as an independent, and he’s doing the same this year in a bid to unseat the state’s other Republican senator. State Democrats believe he can pull it off, and stands a better chance than anyone with a D next to their name. Their unorthodox plan was to abandon their own primary and endorse Osborn.

But then a 79-year-old pastor named William Forbes quietly signed up for the primary at the last minute. Things got completely out of hand after CNN discovered Forbes was a Trump voter who frequently espoused MAGA talking points in his sermons. State Democrat Party Chair Jane Kleeb alleged Forbes’s campaign was a “political maneuver engineered by Pete Ricketts to split the opposition vote,” which the two men denied.

Forbes getting the de facto Democratic nomination would take a significant number of votes from Osborn in a race where the latter is trailing in polling by just one point. State Democrats countered through Cindy Burbank, who filed for the primary solely to defeat Forbes. Burbank admitted that if she won, she would immediately drop out and endorse Osborn. Nebraska’s secretary of state initially removed her from the ballot, arguing she wasn’t running in good faith, but Burbank took her case to the state Supreme Court and was reinstated.

May 19: Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District

A true swing district in the country’s most important swing state, Pennsylvania’s 7th is represented by Ryan Mackenzie, a boilerplate MAGA politico who formerly served with his mommy in the state House of Representatives. Mackenzie won his seat by less than a point in 2024. The latest polling, taken in December, shows a wide-open race.

Front-runner Lamont McClure has been a “near constant presence” in local politics since 2000. He has defeated MAGA politicians before, winning a contentious county executive election against Steve Lynch in 2021. The barrel-chested Lamont is running on a platform of improving public mental health services while reducing taxes and the size of government. He took out a $200,000 loan to fund his campaign, which he said represented “most of his life savings.”

Bob Brooks, though, has a chance to be McClure’s worst nightmare. The progressive head of Pennsylvania’s Professional Fire Fighters Association is racking up high-profile endorsements from the likes of Bernie Sanders and Governor Josh Shapiro. Brooks being a firefighter with a cute bulldog is a large part of his appeal. No joke—once Pennsylvanians are presented with biographical information about the candidates, Brooks takes the lead in polling, with 30 percent of the vote. Sometimes politics is simple.

Carol Obando-Derstine, a supervisor at an energy company, is running for office for the first time. She is endorsed by Susan Wild, the Democrat who lost her seat to Mackenzie in 2024. A naturalized Colombian citizen, she is a longtime resident of District 7. That’s a contrast to Ryan Crosswell, who’s been cast as a carpetbagger by his opponents since he moved to the district last year. Like Brooks, though, Crosswell has a biography that appeals to the working class: He is a former Marine who quit his job at Trump’s DOJ and switched his party affiliation last year.

June 2: New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District

If you recognize the name Tom Kean Jr., it’s most likely because of the recent revelation he has not voted in the House since March 5. Kean belatedly revealed he was having health issues and would be back soon, but his radio silence likely makes this swingy district—which Trump carried by one percentage point in 2024—even more winnable for Democrats.

The four candidates vying to defeat Kean are tantalizingly close to each other in polling. Each has committed not to accept corporate PAC money, but small donors are proving hard to come by; all but front-runner Rebecca Bennett are largely self-funding their campaigns.

Bennett is a former Navy helicopter pilot who focuses on issues like national security and gun safety. Physician Tina Shah has made lowering health care costs a core tenet. Businessman Brian Varela—the subject of a Politico investigation in which he was busted trying to dig up dirt on Bennett—is perhaps the most progressive candidate, expressing support for campaign finance reform and Medicare for All. Michael Roth, a Small Business Administration official under Joe Biden, has been endorsed by five Indivisible chapters and touted his experience providing aid to New Jersey businesses during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In a state where AIPAC was roundly rebuked during a recent special election, but a district that contains around 30,000 Jewish residents, candidates will be tested more than usual on their positions on the Middle East. All four candidates are supportive of Israel. Bennett is endorsed by J Street, a progressive pro-Israel PAC, while Shah is “the only candidate to say she supported continued military aid to Israel without conditions.”

June 2: California Governor

Governor Gavin Newsom is considering running for president, and term limits prevent him seeking reelection anyway. Left in his slippery wake (because of all the hair gel) are no fewer than 10 candidates from both parties. The state’s open primary system means the top two candidates advance to the general regardless of party, and Democrats are worried they’ll be left out of that contest altogether—with all the Democrats splitting the vote, the two top-polling candidates are currently Republicans.

Front-runner Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race (and resigned from Congress) amid reports of sexual misconduct last month, leaving billionaire Tom Steyer (who appeared on one of this magazine’s fine podcasts in March), former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, and former Congresswoman Katie Porter as the Democrats with the best chances.

Funnily enough, it’s the billionaire who’s probably the furthest left of the three. Steyer champions environmental causes and hiking taxes on the rich, and has come around on universal health care. He seems equal parts embarrassed and proud of his money, driving an outdated Honda while making his campaign the most expensive in the country. There’s plenty to be skeptical of here—Steyer has had to disavow his former hedge fund’s investments in fossil fuels and private prisons—but he has an impressively populist appeal for a one-percenter.

The whiteboard-wielding Porter has a strong electoral record, winning toss-up House districts three times as a progressive, and has made waves for her interrogations of Trump officials in Congress. Porter’s biggest obstacle might be her personality: She recently apologized on the debate stage for incidents in which she lashed out at reporters and staffers. Ready to play spoiler is Becerra, a moderate Democrat who was polling in the single digits before Swalwell’s exit saw him surge in the polls. His chief draw is his governmental experience—he sued the Trump administration no fewer than 122 times as state attorney general.

June 23: New York’s 17th Congressional District

Ten miles north of Manhattan in vineyardy Hudson Valley, New York’s 17th is one of three Republican-led districts that Kamala Harris won in 2024, so Democrats know they can topple incumbent Mike Lawler with the right candidate. And Lawler is not exactly undergoing a surge of popularity at the moment, mostly making headlines for his heckletastic town halls. Six Democrats have filed for the June primary, though what sparse polling has been conducted suggests only two moderates have a real chance.

Beth Davidson is a legislator in reddish Rockland County—a large part of her pitch is that she can defeat Lawler with interparty appeal. She is also Jewish, which represents a strong voting bloc in the district. Cait Conley, a National Security Council official under Joe Biden, is leaning on her experience as evidence she can improve things quickly once elected. She is even more centrist than Davidson, or at least eager for voters to think so: A memo obtained by a local journalist stated that her campaign is trying to cast Davidson as a “far left political operative.”

With Peter Chatzky dropping out after his “bawdy” old Facebook posts were unearthed by The New York Times, progressive hopes lie with Effie Phillips-Staley. The daughter of a Salvadoran immigrant has received the blessing of Representative Jamaal Bowman, while also being condemned by all Democratic Party chairs in the district for the cardinal sin of appearing on a Hasan Piker stream.

A final mention in this colorful primary goes to Mike Sacks, a TV reporter whose unofficial campaign slogan is “unfuck our country.” Sacks launched a Tinder profile as part of his campaign, which seems counterintuitive given his catchphrase.

June 30: Colorado’s 8th Congressional District

While the general election for Colorado’s “famously fickle” 8th was expected to be close, the Democratic primary wasn’t supposed to be. Yadira Caraveo, who won a House seat in 2022 before losing to Republican Gabe Evans by less than a percentage point in 2024, is running for a third time, and late last year had a healthy lead in polling.

But then Caraveo dropped out, citing mental health issues. (Staffers have also alleged mistreatment at the hands of Caraveo.) Shannon Bird and Manny Rutinel—both formerly polling in the single digits—are now the Democrats’ top candidates, and they’re beginning to act like it. Both are attorneys; Bird worked in corporate law, Rutinel environmental. Rutinel, a state representative, has come after Bird, a former state representative, for voting alongside Republicans against two immigration bills that would have limited Colorado’s cooperation with ICE. In turn, Bird has suggested Rutinel’s past as a student activist, as well as his criticism of the meat and dairy industries key to the local economy, makes him an easy target for Republicans.

Cook Political Report rates the general election as a toss-up, and the primary’s no easier to predict. The first post-Caraveo poll was released last week: Bird’s at 25 percent, and Rutinel’s at 24, with 45 percent of voters still undecided.

August 4: Michigan Senate

Dramatic wording helps juice clicks and subscriptions, so articles calling state primaries things like “a referendum over the future of the Democratic Party” are common. But the Michigan Senate might be the rare race deserving of the puffery.

Hark back to 2018, and you’ll find Haley Stevens on top of the world, after the former Obama staffer defeated Republican Lena Epstein to flip a key House seat. Stevens’s style of liberalism typified a year in which Democrats reclaimed the House through the strength of center-left candidates (one Politico retrospective was titled “Down Goes Socialism”). A Hillary Clinton robocall even reportedly helped Stevens win her primary—what a thought!

But eight years is a long time. Today, Stevens is not running for a measly House seat but for Senate, and being backed by Chuck Schumer and AIPAC is not the boon it once was.

Opponent Abdul El-Sayed already has a multitude of accomplishments under his belt—Rhodes Scholar, Oxford graduate, physician, former TNR columnist—but becoming the country’s first Muslim senator might be his toughest feat yet. He’s been criticized by liberals for hosting campaign events with Hasan Piker and seemingly lacking moderate appeal. But El-Sayed is an impressive speaker, popular with young people, and his pro-Palestine positions will net him votes with Michigan’s large Arab community.

Attempting to ideologically straddle Stevens and El-Sayed is Mallory McMorrow. A two-term state senator, McMorrow has taken up some progressive positions: She supports a congressional stock-trading ban and is rejecting corporate PACs and AIPAC funds, though she did take money from corporate PACs during her earlier state-level campaigns. (Personal growth or insincerity? Depends who you ask.) She is more moderate on subjects like Gaza, Medicare for All, and ICE reform.

This Senate primary fight is probably the tightest in the country. Most polls show McMorrow and El-Sayed even, with Stevens not far behind; Stevens is even on top in a few recent polls. In a state as nationally predictive as Michigan, the winner of this primary will carry momentum—and nerves—into a general election against presumptive Republican nominee Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate election to Elissa Slotkin by a mere 19,006 votes.

August 6: Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District

Tennessee is deep red, but its 9th district, which incorporates Memphis, is just the opposite. A Republican hasn’t held the seat since 1973, meaning whoever wins this neck-and-neck primary can book their plane tickets to D.C. right away.

This primary will be another referendum for the Dems on age and ideology. Justin Pearson, 31, is a fiery contender who made waves as a state representative in 2023 for protesting the state’s gun control laws following a school shooting (he was temporarily expelled from the House). While still in his twenties, he founded an environmental advocacy group and helped defeat a planned crude oil pipeline (Al Gore and the Memphis-born Justin Timberlake co-signed the cause). Pearson is understandably popular with leftist groups like Justice Democrats. If he wins, look for plenty of articles to be written about his rise.

Representative Steve Cohen—who is 76 and has held the 9th district since 2007—seems far less interesting at first glance, but that would be doing his career a disservice. The first Jewish person to represent Tennessee in the state House, he is a popular progressive, repeatedly winning reelection by large margins despite critics who argue that the heavily Black district should not have a white representative. Having swatted away various challengers over the years, he can seem aloof, telling Axios in September that it would “be a mistake for somebody to run against me. Whoever succeeds me will probably ... be somebody whom I choose to endorse.” Pearson, though, is only one point behind in the latest polling, so Cohen should watch his back.

One final, more depressing bit of intrigue: Following the Supreme Court’s further gutting of the Voting Rights Act last week, Republicans are pushing to gerrymander the district away before the primary even happens.