NZ exporters could claim up to $1 billion in US tariff refunds after Supreme Court rules Trump’s Liberation Day duties unlawful

New Zealand exporters could be in line for as much as $1 billion in refunded United States tariffs, but the path to actually banking that money is anything but automatic. The opportunity has opened up after the US Supreme Court struck down most of the Liberation Day tariff regime that the Trump administration imposed last year, ruling the duties exceeded executive authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The refund process formally began on 20 April, the date US Customs and Border Protection started accepting claims, and applies to tariffs paid on imports between April 2025 and February 2026. EY estimates the total global refund pool at roughly US$166 to US$170 billion, with up to NZ$1 billion of that potentially flowing back to New Zealand businesses if every eligible claim is filed and approved. According to EY’s modelling reported by RNZ, somewhere between 60 and 70 percent of the New Zealand share is likely to be recovered, with the rest at risk of either staying offshore or being absorbed by US importers further down the chain.

EY New Zealand partner Paul Smith said the refund process “has now formally commenced, but it is not automatic” and warned that smaller exporters in particular faced a tougher road. “The opportunity is significant, but while some of New Zealand’s largest exporters are likely to be well placed to claim them directly, EY’s market research suggests a portion of the potential refund pool could be harder for SMEs to recover,” he said. Smith added that “in practice, this means we do not expect every dollar of the estimated $1 billion to flow back to New Zealand businesses”.

The reason that money risks getting stuck has nothing to do with the legality of the tariffs and everything to do with how international trade is structured. Export New Zealand executive director Joshua Tan put it bluntly when he told the NZ Herald that “the importer of record in the United States who will be refunded the tariff, not the exporter”. In practical terms that means a New Zealand cheese maker, kiwifruit grower or medical device manufacturer needs the cooperation of their US distributor to even know whether a refund has been filed, let alone whether any portion of it will be passed back across the Pacific.

Evelyn Suarez, a US-based customs lawyer who has been advising exporters in this region, urged New Zealand suppliers not to wait for their American partners to act. “Work with your customers in the United States, they will need your help,” Suarez said. The advice reflects the reality that many US importers are themselves SMEs without dedicated trade compliance staff, and the refund paperwork through Customs and Border Protection is detailed enough that a well-prepared exporter armed with shipping records, commercial contracts and tariff classifications can materially improve the odds of a successful claim.

The sectoral picture is uneven. New Zealand International Business Forum executive director Felicity Roxburgh noted that “some of the sectors were actually exempted in the late stages, beef and kiwifruit were both exempted” before the Liberation Day regime collapsed. Dairy was hit hardest, sitting under a 15 percent tariff for the longest period of any major New Zealand export category, which means the dairy refund pool is likely to be the largest single slice. Manufactured goods, including machinery, medical devices and scientific instruments, also account for a meaningful share of the potential refund total.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade has confirmed it is briefing exporters on the process through New Zealand Trade and Enterprise channels, although the formal claim has to go through US authorities and US-based legal representatives. Customs lawyers in New Zealand cannot file directly on behalf of importers in the US, which is one of the reasons the cross-border coordination is so important. The window for filing is also not infinite, with US Customs and Border Protection signalling a structured process that will run for months rather than years.

The bigger issue for exporters is that the refund opportunity is being created against a backdrop in which Washington is still actively pursuing new tariffs. Smith said “for exporters, the current New Zealand-United States tariff environment remains complex and uncertain”. He went further, noting that “it is clear that the Trump administration is looking to impose new tariffs on most of its trading nations, and, unfortunately, New Zealand will get washed up in that”. The Liberation Day refund therefore looks less like the end of a tariff dispute and more like a brief interlude before the next round of trade frictions begins.

For New Zealand’s largest exporters with established US distribution arms and dedicated compliance teams, the refund process is essentially an administrative exercise that should deliver most of what they paid in 2025. Fonterra, Zespri’s US partners, Synlait and the larger meat processors all have the scale to navigate Customs and Border Protection forms without serious difficulty. The risk concentrates further down the supply chain, with smaller wine producers, manufacturers and processed-food brands that sell into the US through independent distributors. Those exporters need to engage now or risk watching the recovery flow into the bank accounts of their American intermediaries instead.

The cleanest read across the whole episode is that exporters cannot afford to be passive. The refund window is open, the dollar figures are real, and the difference between the optimistic and pessimistic recovery scenarios is roughly 300 to 400 million dollars in cash that either lands back in New Zealand or stays in the United States. With the next tariff regime already being signalled out of Washington, that money will be needed.

Are you a New Zealand exporter trying to figure out how much of the Liberation Day tariff refund you might be entitled to, or do you think the difficulty of the claims process will end up handing most of the money to US distributors instead? Leave a comment below or join the conversation on the Newswire Facebook page.