Take the points as the Raptors play with house money and zero pressure in Cleveland

My NBA Friday couldn’t have gone worse.

In the first game, the Magic looked to be in total control. They were coasting to upset the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed, and were up by 24 at one point. Playoff collapses happen, but this one was epic. The team scored 19 points in the second half, including just eight in the fourth quarter. The Houston Rockets also let me down as LeBron James turned back the clock again and delivered for the Los Angeles Lakers. Let’s see if I can get a win on the one Friday series I didn’t have any action on.

The Toronto Raptors are playing with house money. No one really expected this team to make the postseason, and if they were going to make it, the expectation was that they would do it as a play-in team. The season has come and gone, and they ended as a six seed, a major underdog against the Cleveland Cavaliers coming into the series. Thanks to the home team winning every game in this series, they are forcing a Game 7.

It probably makes the most sense to talk about their wins, so let’s share how it happened. In Game 3, they were the better team. It really wasn’t much of an argument. In Game 4, the Cavs had a meltdown and blew a reasonable lead. It seemed like every time Cleveland had the ball late in the game, Toronto was able to put pressure on them and force turnovers. Game 6 was mostly led by the Raptors, but they blew the lead late and had to go into overtime. RJ Barrett’s three bounced up 2.1 meters (remember, they are Canadian) and went straight down for yet another playoff bounce in their favor.

The Cavaliers are trying to fight legacy issues. James Harden and Donovan Mitchell are both likely to go down as some of the better players to ever play the game. Harden more than Mitchell, but both have been great in their own way. However, playoff success, or lack thereof, has also defined their careers. Harden has never been to the NBA Finals, and Mitchell has never been out of the second round. Aside from this being a do-or-die Game 7, this might be the year the Cavs blow up the team if they don’t advance from the first round.

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A lot of people liked the Cavs to represent the East in the NBA Finals this season. They had one of the best records in the league last year, and they traded for Harden in the middle of this season. They have Evan Mobley, whose development seems to have stalled. Jarrett Allen is still a solid defender, but not much more than that. Small forward is still a weakness for them, but the struggles have been more than just that.

In order for the Cavs to win this game, I think they need to stop playing so much isolation basketball. That’s easy for me to say, but the reality is Mitchell and Harden both look to score without getting much help from teammates. Getting the ball inside to Allen and Mobley is arguably a better possession for them. It is a major advantage over the Raptors, and I don’t feel like they have exploited it as much as they should.

I really don’t expect much to change for the Cavs. I also think the Raptors are playing with confidence and no pressure. That’s a dangerous combination. In this game, I expect three things to happen. I expect Mitchell to be the best player and dominate. I expect the Cavs to win the game. And, finally, I expect the Raptors to cover the +7.5. It will probably be a strong first quarter from Cleveland, but I think Toronto will manage it and keep this close. They haven’t been fully destroyed in any game, losing by 13, 10, and five. Give me the points.

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