Air travel demand rises despite Middle East disruption

Global passenger demand increased by 2.1 per cent year-on-year in March, despite significant disruptions in key regions, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The figures showed that total capacity declined by 1.7 per cent compared with March 2025, while the global load factor reached 83.6 per cent, representing an increase of 3.1 percentage points.

Performance across markets diverged, with international demand declining by 0.6 per cent year-on-year, marking the first contraction since March 2021.

At the same time, international capacity fell by 6.2 per cent, while the load factor rose to 84.1 per cent, up by 4.7 percentage points.

The downturn in international traffic was primarily driven by a sharp 60.8 per cent drop in passenger demand among Middle Eastern carriers, reflecting geopolitical developments in the region.

In contrast, domestic passenger demand rose by 6.5 per cent, supported by a 5.6 per cent increase in capacity.

Domestic load factors reached 83.0 per cent, representing a modest rise of 0.7 percentage points.

“Demand for air travel continued to grow in March despite disruptions in the Middle East,” said IATA director general Willie Walsh.

“The nearly 61 per cent decline in international traffic by carriers in the Middle East did, however, restrain global growth to 2.1 per cent,” he added.

“Outside of the Middle East demand grew by 8 per cent,” he stated.

Walsh also highlighted emerging concerns over fuel markets and their potential impact on the sector.

“Everybody’s watching what’s happening with jet fuel both supply and pricing,” he said. “On the supply side, over the next months we could see shortages in parts of the world with high dependence on supplies from the Gulf, especially Asia and Europe.”

“The extraordinarily high cost of jet fuel is increasingly being reflected in ticket prices,” he continued.

“While this has not impacted March traffic or forward bookings to date, it remains to be seen at what point high prices could start to shift passenger behaviour,” he said.

“So far, the summer is shaping up to be a normally busy time for travel,” he noted.

“That’s positive news, but airline resilience is being tested and stabilising the supply and price of fuel is crucial,” Walsh mentioned.

The IATA chief continued by saying that “it is important for regulators to be prepared to grant airlines some flexibility on slots considering the extraordinary circumstances of airspace capacity restrictions and potential fuel rationing”.

Regionally, Asia-Pacific airlines recorded an 11.5 per cent increase in demand, supported by a 1.5 per cent rise in capacity.

The region achieved a load factor of 91.2 per cent, up by 8.1 percentage points, driven by strong seasonal travel and expanding international routes.

European carriers posted a 7.7 per cent increase in demand, with capacity rising by 3.2 per cent and the load factor reaching 81.4 per cent.

Traffic between Europe and Asia surged by 29.3 per cent, as direct routes replaced those previously transiting through the Middle East.

North American airlines saw demand grow by 3.7 per cent, with capacity up by 0.9 per cent and load factors reaching 85.5 per cent.

Transatlantic travel increased by 3.3 per cent, while growth between Asia and North America more than doubled compared with February.

Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 60.8 per cent decline in demand, alongside a 56.9 per cent drop in capacity.

The region’s load factor fell to 67.8 per cent, down by 6.6 percentage points, reflecting the impact of widespread airspace closures linked to the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

Latin American airlines recorded a 12.1 per cent rise in demand, with capacity increasing by 8.4 per cent and load factors reaching 83.8 per cent.

African carriers saw the strongest growth at 19.2 per cent, supported by a 4.2 per cent increase in capacity and a load factor of 77.7 per cent.

In domestic markets, revenue passenger kilometres rose by 6.5 per cent, reflecting robust demand across several major economies.

China and Brazil led the expansion with double-digit growth, while Australia and Japan also recorded strong increases.

By contrast, domestic traffic in India declined, potentially due to fewer feeder flights to hubs connected to the Middle East.