War in Iran has Croatia’s tourist hotspot wondering: will Dubrovnik host another 4 million visitors in 2026?

Summer is still a few months away, but the streets of Croatia’s old town of Dubrovnik are already teeming with tourists from all over the world. It’s usually a sign of a strong season ahead, but this year uncertainty hangs in the air.

Global instability triggered by the Iran war and surging fuel prices have brought unpredictability to the tourism industry, including in Dubrovnik, Croatia’s top Adriatic Sea destination that draws millions of visitors annually.

The stakes for Croatia’s economy are high: The tourism sector is one of the country’s key sources of income and is largely dependent on international travelers.

Though tourist numbers have been up in Dubrovnik, officials are warning nothing is guaranteed. The fuel crisis and Persian Gulf tensions could drive up airfares and slow arrivals just as the season gathers pace.

Miro Draskovic, director of the Dubrovnik Tourist Board, noted that while the American market remains strong, some Australian travelers — typically among the top 10 nations coming to the city — are now “facing difficulties traveling toward Europe.”

“The situation for sure is very, very difficult, and we are following what’s happening every day,” he told The Associated Press.

So far, things are looking good. Dubrovnik airport has recorded a 13% rise in visitors over Easter compared to the same period last year. Its bustling atmosphere and boats ferrying tourists around testify to the city’s lasting appeal.

The UNESCO-protected heritage city is known for its rich medieval history, seafront location and churches and palaces within its stone walls. Dubrovnik’s popularity soared after it served as a filming location for the hit TV series “Game of Thrones.”

Compared to other regions in the country, Dubrovnik could be harder hit if the fuel crisis deepens because of its location at the southern tip of Croatia’s Adriatic Sea coastline. Around 80% of visitors come to Dubrovnik by plane.

Marina Ruso Mileusnic, a spokeswoman for the city’s airport, which is connected to some 70 airports around the world, said “we are very cautious about the upcoming season.”

Predictions for the weeks and months ahead have varied.

In early April, the head of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol warned in an interview with the AP that Europe has just weeks of jet fuel supplies and could face the biggest energy crisis ever.

This week, however, European Union’s Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said there is “no actual evidence” of shortages in the 27-nation bloc as officials urged people to plan their holidays without fear.

Singapore businessman Ramon Padiernos agreed. The crisis in the Middle East meant he had to swap his favorite carriers Emirates and Qatar Airways for Turkish Airlines, but he still made it to Dubrovnik.

“We feel the impact maybe of oil prices but I think everybody just goes on with their lives and enjoy their holidays,” he said. “I think it is best for the world to see the lighter side of it, rather than focusing on the issues that we cannot control.”

Apart from impacts on tourism, the energy crisis has also contributed to a rise in inflation in Croatia to 5.8% in April, one of the highest in the EU.

The country recorded nearly 22 million tourist arrivals last year. Out of some 110 million overnight stays in 2025, Dubrovnik alone had 4.28 million, according to the national tourism board.

Draskovic said hopes are high that things soon will get back to normal. Until then, he said, “we can only work on day to day basis to get the best possible season we can.”

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Jovana Gec contributed. to this report

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com