Habs Mailbag: Canadiens’ Jakub Dobes doing his part against Lightning
Hey, Stu, I was wondering if you think the Habs have what it takes to go all the way to the Stanley Cup final and win the Stanley Cup?
Jess Cleveland
Hey, Jess, thanks for emailing in your question.
Before the playoffs started, I predicted the Lightning would beat the Canadiens in six games because they had a big edge in overall experience and goaltending, with veteran Andrei Vasilevskiy and his two Stanley Cup rings going up against rookie Jakub Dobes.
The Canadiens had a chance to win the series in six games Friday night at the Bell Centre, but Vasilevskiy made 30 saves in a 1-0 overtime victory, forcing Game 7 Sunday in Tampa (6 p.m., CBC, SN, TVA Sports).
Dobes made 32 saves in Game 6 and has actually outperformed Vasilevskiy in the series with a .916 save percentage compared with his counterpart’s .905.
The biggest reason why this series is now going seven games is because the Canadiens’ top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky has yet to score a goal at five-on-five.
The Canadiens are the youngest team in the playoffs, but have shown in this series that experience isn’t everything. They have really bonded as a team, shown some surprising depth and they stick up for each other. They are able to find different ways to win games.
A couple of weeks ago I received a question for the Habs Mailbag asking how close the Canadiens were to being a serious Stanley Cup contender. I responded as early as next season and definitely the year after. But I added: “If they can get past the Lightning, get great goaltending from Jakub Dobes and/or Jacob Fowler and get Noah Dobson back in the lineup sooner rather than later, they could even contend this season.”
They’ll also need to get more production from their No. 1 line.
I think the Lightning are the biggest challenge in the Eastern Conference for the Canadiens and I can see them beating the Buffalo Sabres in the second round if they get there and the Carolina Hurricanes or Philadelphia Flyers if they get to the Eastern Conference final.
I don’t think the Canadiens would have enough this season to beat the Colorado Avalanche, who I expect will represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup final after winning the Presidents’ Trophy during the regular season with a 55-16-11 record before sweeping the Los Angeles Kings in the first round of the playoffs.
Having said that, the last team to win the Presidents’ Trophy and the Stanley Cup in the same season was the Chicago Blackhawks in 2012-13.
What is your assessment of the failure of the Canadiens’ top line to score at five-on-five against the Lightning? Something structural? Anthony Cirelli? Or just the normal ups-and-downs of the playoffs?
Jonathan Zasloff
It’s a bit of all of that.
It’s hard to score in the playoffs when the intensity heats up, players dig in more defensively, teams play each other for several games in a row and opposing coaches come up with game plans to shut down the other team’s top players.
Lightning coach Jon Cooper obviously came up with a good plan to shut down Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky at five-on-five. Cooper has had Cirelli focus on shutting down Suzuki, who has yet to score a goal in the series.
“It’s a game plan we put in,” Cooper said before Game 4. “I wouldn’t sit here and say everything’s worked for us, but that sure has.”
On the flip side, the Canadiens have been able to limit Nikita Kucherov to one goal through the first six games after he scored 44 goals during the regular season.
Edmonton’s Connor McDavid, who scored 48 goals during the regular season, was limited to one goal (on the power play) as the Oilers were eliminated by the Anaheim Ducks in six games in the first round.
Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis was asked ahead of Game 6 against the Lightning about how hard it can be for top players to score in the playoffs.
“Both teams are defending extremely well and extremely hard,” St. Louis said. “And I feel that you have to be able to manage the way the game is played. So sometimes you find yourself probably having to defend more than just worrying about offence because their matchup hasn’t been easy (for Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky). They’re playing against guys, they’re defending hard and they’re trying to score, too.
“Sometimes you have matchups where it’s easier, in a sense, that the line that’s matching you is not necessarily trying to score, too,” St. Louis added. “So you can actually, probably, have more calculated risk in your game. I’ve experienced both (as a player) and you have to be on high alert as an offensive guy when you’re getting defended by elite offensive guys that are playing defence, too. So, it’s not that easy and I feel our series has been tight because of that. Offensive guys from both teams are playing defence as well.”
Based on their play in the first round of the playoffs if Noah Dobson returns to the lineup after recovering from his thumb injury, who comes out of the lineup — Jayden Struble or Arber Xhekaj?
Mark Voutier
Struble and Xhekaj have both played well against the Lightning with limited ice time, but St. Louis has shown during the regular season and playoffs that he trusts Struble more defensively.
Struble is averaging 11:43 of ice time in the playoffs, compared with 10:07 for Xhekaj. During the regular season, Struble averaged 14:01 and Xhekaj 11:25.
With that in mind, I think St. Louis would probably take Xhekaj out to make room for Dobson. Personally, I’d keep Xhekaj in over Struble because of his physical presence. Xhekaj leads the Canadiens with 31 hits against the Lightning, one more than forward Josh Anderson. Struble has 17 hits.
The Canadiens defence as a whole has stepped up in the absence of Dobson, who averaged 22:29 of ice time during the regular season to rank third on the team behind Mike Matheson (24:10) and Lane Hutson (23:46).
“I feel it’s hard to replace Noah Dobson’s minutes with one guy,” St. Louis said. “You look what (Alexandre Carrier) has done. I feel like (Xhekaj) and Strubs have elevated their games. I think collectively we’ve been able to sustain Dobber’s absence. So, it’s been good.”
With Kirby Dach’s past health woes and inconsistent play, if the Habs decide to qualify him can they make an offer lower than what he’s getting now?
Big Bill on Bluesky — @bigbill33.bsky.social
The answer is no.
Dach had a salary-cap hit of US$3,362,500 this season in the final year of his four-year, US$13.45-million contract, but he actually earned US$4 million. He can become a restricted free agent on July 1.
The collective bargaining agreement states that all qualifying offers are for one year with a minimum salary dependent on what the player’s salary was the previous season. For a player earning more than US$1 million (like Dach) the qualifying offer must be the lesser of 100 per cent of his most recent salary or 120 per cent of the cap hit.
If a restricted free agent is not offered a qualifying offer, he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
The Canadiens aren’t going to want to lose the 25-year-old Dach for nothing, so if they can’t agree to a new contract before July 1 they will certainly make him a qualifying offer.
If you have a question you’d like to ask for the weekly Habs Mailbag, you can email it to montrealcanadiens@postmedia.com
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