The Week Ahead (4 - 8 May): US NFPs amp; UK AGM season
Hello and welcome to The Week Ahead!
Interest rates: We just had a very busy week for central bank activity: meetings and announcements from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the ECB.
Among them, the only major development was Jerome Powell’s indication that he will be staying on the Board of Governors of the Fed even after Kevin Wash takes over as Chair. He has every right to do this - but it’s unusual, and it stymies President Trump’s ability to reshape the Fed more to his liking. There is no love lost between these two men.
The rest was all talk: the ECB and the Bank of England left rates unchanged, but both institutions debated what to do about the oil price shock. Rate hikes are now probably on the menu for the rest of the year: the ECB is expected to hike soon, in June, while two hikes are priced in for the Bank of England in 2026.
Looking ahead, we have a short week coming up for the May bank holiday.
In macro news, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed which is the main issue facing the global economy and particularly the oil...