Houston Rockets favored to force Game 7 as Lakers struggle to close out playoff series

If it feels like the first round of the NBA playoffs is taking longer than normal, that’s probably because it is. You should be happy about that! If you don’t love basketball, then you probably are marginally interested in this article or the playoffs anyway, but that’s a different conversation.

More hoops are always better to me, and I’m happy these have been competitive and entertaining series.

The Los Angeles Lakers go into Houston tonight to battle and try to close out their series. I’m going to start with the bad… If the Lakers lose, that means this goes to a Game 7. Anything can happen in those situations. If the Lakers lose that game, that means that they will be the first NBA team to blow a 3-0 lead.

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Not exactly the legacy or exit you would want if you are LeBron James (who probably isn’t retiring anyway).

In Game 5, on their home court, the Lakers raced out to a big lead, but they kind of fell flat. They did get a boost in Austin Reaves coming back, but he was inefficient and looked like he hadn’t played competitive basketball in a month. Maybe in this second game back, he will be fine.

The problem is that outside of Reaves and James, there is very little to be encouraged by from the Lakers. The team is not as good as Houston on defense, and they are definitely the older team. That was important in their win in Game 3 as the experience allowed them to overcome a six-point deficit to push the game into overtime and take a win.

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However, the youth of the Houston Rockets might also be a blessing. These games have only one off day between them. That leads to tired legs for both players, but the Rockets have an average age of 27.8, 11th in the league. The average age by minutes is lower, though.

That is inverted for the Lakers, with a lower overall age, but is higher in age per minutes. This is important information as the core of the Lakers, especially as Reaves and Luka Doncic were/are out, the team had to rely more on veterans.

The Rockets are without Kevin Durant, the one scorer they needed last season to make a nice run in the postseason. However, their team seems to have found some identity over the past few games. They are now playing with house money. If they lose, the narrative will be that it is because Durant was injured. If they can win the series, it is because they don’t have the same pressure they did at the start of the series, and it is because the youth stepped up.

Just watching the past three games, the Rockets have been the better team. I would even be willing to make an argument that they were the better team in Game 2, but that’s more of a question. An epic collapse in Game 3 put them on the back foot. It would certainly help to have Durant around to make things easier, but he has been ruled out.

I really like Houston in this game. At this point, the pressure is on the Lakers to close it out. Aside from James, there aren’t many areas that I think they have an advantage over Houston. Reaves could come out and look considerably better in this game, and that would make a difference, but the Rockets are leaning on smart shots and defense. They will win and cover this one.

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