Summer Forecast 2026: El Niño Will Bring Severe Weather, Heat, and Flooding

Brace yourselves for a hot and equally wet summer. El Niño is back, and with it comes an amalgam of turbulent weather. Last completed during the 2023-2024 season, El Niño will return in Summer 2026 to shake things up. It is expected to develop in early summer and influence the rest of the season's weather patterns, even through the remainder of 2026. El Niño could potentially morph into a rare "super" El Niño later in the year, too.

For starters, US residents can expect a very hot summer across the board. AccuWeather reports that "almost no areas" are expected to have "temperatures below the historical average." The states that will receive the brunt of the heat spell include California, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Montana, Nevada, and Washington. Southern California is already a target of wildfires every summer, and this certainly contributes to the "widespread wildfire threat" for the states already experiencing historic droughts. AccuWeather predicts said threat to be roughly in the same range as last year's total wildfires.

Cities like New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago can expect 90-degree days "near or above the historical average," while the Northeast could undergo a "late surge of heat and higher humidity."

Meanwhile, the Midwest, Plains, and the Ohio Valley should expect severe storms, with the most activity taking place early to midsummer. Those storms will move farther east later in the summer. AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok shares that residents should brace themselves for the number of tornadoes to be "near or above average in June and July."

While the frequency of tornadoes could decrease later in the season, thunderstorms will continue throughout August, potentially giving way to "derechos," which are described as "inland hurricanes." Derechos bring winds that exceed 100 mph and widespread power outages.

The thunderstorms courtesy of El Niño could also raise the risk of flash flooding. AccuWeather reports that the Plains, the Midwest, the Ohio Valley, and the Texas Hill Country could be more susceptible to flooding this summer. Elsewhere, the Northwest, Northern California, the Gulf Coast, and the Appalachians (particularly the southern and central parts) can expect longer dry spells and drought conditions.

Make sure you stay cool -- and dry -- this summer.