“Formidable” El Niño Expected – Expert Reaction

Press Release – Science Media Centre

Earth Sciences New Zealand meteorologists say there is a greater than 60% probability that the event will be classified as strong by spring, with the potential to intensify further later in the year.

El Niño could influence weather patterns across NZ from winter onwards, potentially bringing reduced rainfall for some areas.

Earth Sciences New Zealand meteorologists say there is a greater than 60% probability that the event will be classified as ‘strong’ by spring, with the potential to intensify further later in the year.

The SMC asked experts to comment.

Associate Professor Daniel Kingston, School of Geography | Te Iho Whenua, University of Otago | Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka, comments:

“Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) has recently reported that an El Niño event is likely to develop by the end of the year. Exactly how strong the event is will become clearer in the coming months – seasonal forecasts of El Niño activity this far in advance are often quite uncertain.

“If the event does unfold as predicted, the impacts may be substantial. As ESNZ note, El Niño events often result in south-westerly winds over New Zealand, bringing increased rainfall in the south and west, but drier conditions elsewhere.

“Changes in wind direction and rainfall occur at much larger scales too, leading to major switches across the Pacific and beyond in the occurrence of extreme events such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones.

“The signal in global temperatures can also be major. Put simply, El Niño is often associated with large-scale releases of heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean. In turn, this results in unusual warmth at the global scale. Indeed, the biggest recent jumps in global mean temperature have been associated with El Niño years. As the planet approaches the 1.5 °C warming threshold, this is yet another reason to focus our collective minds on the issue of climate change.”

Conflict of interest statement: “No conflicts of interest to report.

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