Airfare data shows how ticket prices may jump if Spirit collapses

• Spirit Airlines is on the brink of collapse and is warning of possible liquidation.
• If Spirit disappears, travelers are likely to feel the impact quickly.
• A Business Insider analysis of airline fare data shows a Spirit fold would hike prices roughly 14%.

Your cheap fare to Florida could soon be a lot more expensive.

After a failed merger with JetBlue Airways and two bankruptcies in under a year, the once ultra-low-cost giant Spirit Airlines is on the brink of collapse and asking for a government bailout.

It hasn't turned a full-year profit since the pandemic, squeezed by rising labor costs, engine issues, and shifting demand — and is now warning of possible liquidation amid high oil prices.

Spirit has asked the Trump administration for a $500 million lifeline in exchange for an up to 90% stake — a proposal Shark Tank panelist Kevin O'Leary told NewsNation on Thursday is a "really bad idea." It's unclear whether the government will step in or let it fail.

But if Spirit disappears, fares are likely to rise.

A Business Insider analysis of domestic airline schedules and fare data from the aviation analytics company Cirium found that airfares rose an average of about $19, or 14%, across the roughly 90 routes Spirit exited between 2024 and 2025, as consumers faced fewer options.

That compares with about a 6% to 7% increase — roughly $8 to $10 per ticket — in cities where it continued to operate, broadly in line with typical airfare inflation.

Because fare data includes all carriers and connecting traffic, the findings reflect overall market pricing between city pairs rather than directional one-ways. These trends exclude extras like bag fees and seat selection.

Prices increased in about 80% of Spirit's exit cases overall — offering an idea of what could happen if the flailing budget carrier folds without a buyer.

"When any airline leaves a market, it results in a drop in the supply of seats," Mike Arnot, an airline industry consultant, told Business Insider. "That generally means that airfare will increase, and it doesn't much matter which airline departs a market."

The trend reflects the "Spirit effect" — the idea that airlines lower fares when a budget carrier enters a market — but in reverse. While other factors like demand and fuel costs also affect pricing, larger increases where Spirit exited suggest its absence mattered — with some fares rising by more than $100.

The biggest hike was between Oakland and Newark, New Jersey, where ticket prices more than doubled, from about $135 to $288.

Spirit fully left Oakland in October 2025. Flight fares between Oakland and Houston and between Oakland and Los Angeles increased by 25% and 31%, respectively.

Service between Kansas City and Newark also surged triple digits from about $161 to $268 a ticket.

In Florida markets, Fort Myers to San Juan rose nearly 140%, from $92 to $219; between Fort Lauderdale and Salt Lake City — the latter Spirit also left in October 2025 — fares increased by about $50, or 30%.

Flights between Las Vegas and Charleston and Richmond jumped about $30, or 15%.

Spirit generated about $3.8 billion in revenue in 2025, but despite its efforts to attract more premium flyers with a revamped cabin and flight experience, it posted a net loss of about $2.8 billion — underscoring the severity of its financial crisis.

The Dania Beach, Florida-based airline has about 7,500 employees, down from about 13,000 at its post-pandemic peak in 2023.

Spirit focuses on low-cost domestic and leisure routes — think Florida, Las Vegas, and the Caribbean — offering ultra-cheap base fares, with nearly everything beyond a personal item and an unassigned seat costing extra.

That model once pushed airlines like United Airlines and Delta Air Lines to slash fares and roll out basic economy. Even as more travelers pay up for premium seats — and Spirit continues to lose traffic — its presence still acts as a key pricing check.

In the event of Spirit's collapse, it's unlikely every market will see a dramatic jump.

In some cities where Spirit exited entirely, like Minneapolis and Salt Lake City, increases were often under $20 — suggesting competitors filled the gap or that supply had already outpaced demand.

A handful of routes saw fares fall after Spirit exited. Boston to West Palm Beach and to Los Angeles dropped by $40 and $32, respectively, but most fare drops were modest — less than $19 — compared with the increases that reached over $150.