Why betting Thunder -9.5 against the Suns feels like a safe play in a lopsided series

For the most part, we’ve seen a ton of good basketball in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

There are very few series that have the potential to be sweeps. However, one series that has been a bit rough is this one between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Phoenix Suns. Sports betting will always keep it interesting, though, and that’s why we will place a bet on this one.

The Thunder are the best team in the league, and they are going to be for multiple years to come. They have the MVP of the league, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will accept his second one this season. (Side note, if you had to bet on his career MVP awards, I’d take under 2.5; the narrative around him is already shifting to him being a foul-baiter and not as impressive as he actually is).

They have one of the best secondary options in the league in Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren hasn’t even reached his peak yet.

There are so many good players on this roster, and they have a bunch of draft capital remaining. The only thing that can really stop them is likely the salary cap. Williams and Holmgren will likely be max players, and Gilgeous-Alexander makes an absurd amount of money. Outside of those three, the team has a ton of very good role players. And, most of those players actually know their role, which gives Oklahoma City so much success.

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The Phoenix Suns had problems for years with depth. They focused on hoping that a combination of big names could lead them to where they wanted to go. However, it never panned out. This season, they were able to get to 45 wins. Unfortunately, it was only good enough for the 8th seed, and that gave them a date with these Thunder. It does feel a bit like this is the ceiling for this Suns team, but at least there is more optimism than there has been in the past few seasons.

Mark Williams was out in the most recent game, and if he can’t go here, the interior presence for the Suns will be even more vulnerable. Dillon Brooks is already a small power forward at just 6’7". Can the Suns steal a game if they aren’t at full strength? Well, they’ve had enough trouble even when they have everyone available. Devin Booker and Brooks have been very good, and Jalen Green has helped, but stopping the Thunder is like trying to stop a freight train.

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Unfortunately for Phoenix, there just isn’t much that can be done to win a game. I’m not saying it is impossible, but they know they are playing to make this a five-game series instead of a four-game series. They took their best shot last game and hung with the Thunder for half of the game. It was a closer game this time, with the Thunder winning by only 13. Most of that came when the Thunder stopped caring in the fourth quarter.

The Suns outscored the Thunder by 10 in the fourth, but the Thunder had a 26-point lead at one point. In seven games, Oklahoma City has won by an average of 25.6 points. They did lose two games in the regular season to Phoenix. The Playoffs are a different beast, though. The Thunder don’t want to mess around. They will win this one by double-digits as well, give me OKC -9.5

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