Chipmakers are on a 17-day heater. These 3 stocks could make or break the rally.

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has risen for 17 straight days, the longest streak on record.
• The rally off Iran-war lows has been driven by positive earnings and, of course, Nvidia.
• On the heels of Intel's blockbuster earnings report, SOX looks poised to keep the streak going.

The stock market's eye-watering rally off Iran-war lows has made for some intriguing streaks.

The Nasdaq Composite's 13-day run of consecutive gains — its longest since 1992 — grabbed a lot of attention. The S&P 500 (7 days) and MSCI World Index (8 days) also posted their best uninterrupted winning stretches in months.

As those have since fallen by the wayside, one has endured: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, more commonly known as SOX. The gauge of chip stocks has climbed for 17 straight trading sessions, its longest streak on record. The return over that period? A tidy 41%, handily beating the S&P 500 (+12%) and Nasdaq (+18%).

Throughout its rally, SOX has defied temporary sell-offs in the broader market, including on Thursday. Software stocks — another AI lightning rod that's bounced higher in April — weren't so lucky, falling 6% on the day.

The SOX surge has helped investors forget about the first month of the Iran war, which saw the index tumble as much as 12% into correction territory. The rebound has more than made up those losses, helping the index notch record highs for 12 straight days.

Which developments have helped the rally

Nvidia leads the way: The fact that SOX's biggest component, Nvidia, is up 21% since the late-March low certainly helps matters. Not only is it an industry bellwether that other stocks follow, it also carries a heavy index weighing.

TSMC's strong earnings: The Taiwanese chipmaking giant reported record revenue for this past quarter, and boosted its full-year sales forecast. The company cited continued strong demand for AI, and downplayed Iran-war headwinds.

ASML had solid results too: The Dutch producer of advanced chipmaking machines also raised its full year revenue forecast, for the same AI-centric reason.

Which stocks will determine the next phase

Intel, which just reported: The chipmaker's results won't impact SOX until trading opens on Friday, but early signs are promising. The company gave second-quarter guidance that trounced analyst estimates, offering a sign that it's keeping pace with the global AI-infrastructure buildout.

Qualcomm, which reports next week: The company has participated in the rapid rally off late-March lows, but it's still down a lot over the longer term. Qualcomm, along with Intel, is more exposed than other SOX peers to soaring memory-chip prices. The fact that they're rallying alongside the group is a bullish signal overall.

United Microelectronics, whose earnings are also next week: Taiwan's second-biggest chipmaker, behind TSMC, is expected to see year-over-year profit growth of 38%, according to Bloomberg estimates.

Let's have Jim Reid, head of global macro research at Deutsche Bank, take us home: "This has all reinforced the narrative of a powerful, AI-driven demand cycle. So, the talk of an AI bubble from last year has receded for now."