Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly used classified operation-planning data to pocket over $400,000 on Polymarket
A US Army Green Beret has been arrested on charges that he used classified information from the operation to kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to place high-stakes bets on prediction markets already rocked by billions of dollars in suspiciously timed wagers during the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Prosecutors say Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke wagered some $32,000 on Polymarket and pocketed more than $400,000 by betting on Maduro’s removal from power, using insider knowledge from his role in planning and executing the January raid.
According to the Justice Department, Van Dyke faces charges including wire fraud, commodities fraud, and unlawful use of government information. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a parallel complaint, while Polymarket said it flagged the suspicious activity itself and cooperated with investigators.
The case is now fueling broader scrutiny of prediction markets that turned war and regime-change operations into tradable contracts, with Venezuela being only the beginning.
During the US-Israeli war on Iran, prediction and traditional financial markets saw a flood of suspiciously well-timed bets tied to airstrikes, ceasefires, unexpected statements, and diplomatic twists.
Traders placed more than $1 billion in “perfectly timed” wagers, including an $850,000 bet just before US strikes on Iran and roughly $950 million in oil futures hours before US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, according to The Guardian. That announcement alone generated more than 413 million bets and over $100 million in wagers across prediction markets in just a few days, according to AP.
Reporter: There are also bets being placed on the Iran conflict. People suspect there is insider trading happening. Are you concerned?
Trump: Unfortunately, the whole world has become somewhat of a casino. I don't like it conceptually. It is what it is. pic.twitter.com/t1OPOUWHub
Scrutiny has also fallen on the Trump family’s links to the industry over potential conflicts of interest. The New York Times reported in January that Donald Trump Jr. had advisory ties to Polymarket and rival firm Kalshi, and had an investment in the former through his venture firm, 1789 Capital.
The White House warned staff against using insider information on March 24, a day after Trump ordered the first five-day pause in planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
Trump himself downplayed the betting frenzy on Thursday, saying he was “not happy with any of that stuff” but adding that “the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.”