Forget the experts: These are your winning 2026 NFL Draft bets

I pride myself on "getting it in good" in sports betting, which is poker slang for making a plus-expected value bet before all the cards are dealt. Well, it's getting harder and harder to do that in the 2026 NFL Draft, so I'm just gambling (responsibly, of course) this year.

Whether it be the NFL executives telling teams to keep their draft boards more private because we can now legally gamble on this stuff, or the sportsbooks are just putting up sharper numbers. Either way, it's tough for schnooks like me to profit off the NFL draft nowadays.

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Nevertheless, I’m targeting a few angles that blend team need, market value, and draft buzz. From elite cornerback value at pick nine to a wide receiver market that’s shifting by the hour, here are my best bets for the 2026 class.

I’m counting on the Kansas City Chiefs keeping their ninth pick and taking by far the best cornerback on the board. Kansas City’s starting cornerbacks from last season, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, went to the Los Angeles Rams. One via trade and the other in free agency.

However, ESPN’s Peter Schrager predicts the Dallas Cowboys will trade for the ninth pick in his latest mock draft and take Delane, which still cashes this bet.

Delane is NFL.com’s third-best graded overall draft prospect and the top-graded cornerback. Tennessee Volunteers CB Jermod McCoy is 21st overall and the next best corner. NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah is my favorite draft analyst, and he has the Chiefs taking Delane ninth.

Given NFLMockDraftDatabase.com, which aggregates 162 first-round mock drafts, has Delane as the most likely player to be taken by Kansas City ninth, +330 is worth sprinkling pizza money on. 

The Rams are in "win-now" mode since starting QB Matt Stafford is 38 years old, and they are the betting favorite to win the 2027 Super Bowl at DraftKings.

Los Angeles could take an offensive lineman here, but Stafford could use another pass-catcher because there is a huge drop-off in their WR corps after Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

Moreover, the Rams might want insurance policies for Puka, who appears to be crazy, and Adams, who is 33 years old and has dealt with injuries over the last few years. Again, they acquired two starting cornerbacks from Kansas City this offseason.

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LAR has drafted and developed its front seven well in recent years, so it can afford a luxury item in the draft. For what it’s worth, Jeremiah and NFLMockDraftDatabase.com predict the Rams will take USC Trojans WR Makai Lemon with the 13th pick. 

Bookmaker, one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks, has Tate at -275 to be the first wide receiver taken Thursday, whereas Arizona State Sun Devils WR Jordyn Tyson is at +155.

I.e., the sharp money at Bookmaker has Tate as a massive favorite to be taken before Tyson. At the time of writing, the best price I could find for Tate being the first wide receiver off the board is on Kalshi.

NFLMockDraftDatabase.com has Tate going sixth to the Cleveland Browns and Tyson 10th to the New York Giants. NFL.com grades Tate as the sixth-best overall prospect in this class and Tyson is 10 spots behind him. 

Ohio State is "Wide Receiver University" featuring Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl LX champion WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson, among others. Tate's Buckeye pedigree is enough for me to bet him to be the first wideout selected Thursday.

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